It Doesn’t Take Much Global Warming To Drive Global Water Scarcity Way Up

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/12/17/3076101/global-warming-water-scarcity/

By Jeff Spross on December 17, 2013

According to new modeling by German researchers, global warming of just 2.7 degrees Celsius [4.8 F] would inflict a “severe decrease in water resources” on 15 percent of the global population.

What’s especially significant is that most of the damage gets done by relatively low amounts of global warming.

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When the researchers looked for the greatest overlap between the results, they found that 1°C to 2°C of global warming drove up absolute water scarcity around the world by 40 percent. That was due to climate change alone, before the effect of population growth was factored in.

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The areas that were hardest-hit under the modeling were the Mediterranean, the Middle East, the southern United States, and southern China. As climate change involves a lot of regional variability, southern India, western China, and parts of eastern Africa actually saw water availability go up. It’s just that, as the headline numbers show, the total change is a big net negative.

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Water scarcity is also one of the chief ways climate change could destabilize international security. The flood of Syrian refugees into Jordan is exacerbating Jordan’s already chronic water shortages, and thus inflaming tensions in the region.