Sunday, March 01, 2009

G.D.P. Revision

On the one hand, overly optimistic predictions are perfectly normal.
On the other hand, falsifying science data for the sake of short-term profits for big business owners was perfectly normal for the Bush administration, so it would be silly to expect honesty in the realm of finance statistics.

Published: February 27, 2009

The economy contracted at a far faster rate than initially estimated in the final months of 2008, the government reported Friday, suggesting a deeper recession that will further challenge the health of the financial system.
In the fourth quarter, the gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent, the steepest decline since the 1982 recession and sharper than the 3.8 percent reported earlier. Every major component of the economy shrank, except government spending. Economists said all signs point to a similar drop in output in the current quarter.
Even before Friday’s revision of the year-end numbers, economists had criticized government estimates as not fully reflecting the severity of the downturn.
Some economists said the price revision was the report’s biggest surprise. Prices fell, but slightly less than reported earlier. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that means consumers spent even less than earlier believed.

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