http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/18/3750812/sulfur-designations-epa/
by Katie Valentine Feb 18, 2016
Residents in 12 regions across the country are breathing unhealthy levels of sulfur dioxide, the Environmental Protection Agency has found.
The agency this week proposed that these 12 areas — in the states of Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas — are violating the federal government’s health standard for sulfur pollution. If this proposal is finalized, these states will have to come up with plans to lower their sulfur emissions.
That’s important, because sulfur is a dangerous pollutant. Short-term exposure — breathing sulfur-polluted air for as little as five minutes — has been linked to an “array of adverse respiratory effects” including exacerbated asthma symptoms and increased emergency room visits. Sulfur oxides can also form small particulate matter when they react with other compounds in the air, and these particulates can aggravate the lungs and cause or exacerbate respiratory diseases.
“SO2 isn’t really about climate. SO2 is about public health,” Zachary Fabish, staff attorney for the Sierra Club, told ThinkProgress. In that way, it’s similar to mercury and ozone — two other forms of pollution that the EPA regulates.
Fabish said the Detroit area was one of the first regions that the EPA identified as having higher-than-healthy levels of sulfur. “I’ve spoken to a lot of folks who live in and around Detroit who have just heartbreaking stories about kids with chronic asthma because the air quality is so bad,” he said. “They miss tons of days of school — I’m not talking about one or two days a semester, but like dozens of days.”
•••••
Most of the country’s emissions of sulfur dioxide come from big industrial plants — mostly, power plants that burn coal, as well as some chemical facilities and refineries.
“Sulfur dioxide is pretty unique in that something like 90 percent of all the SO2 emitted in this country comes from only a few hundred really large emitters,” Fabish said. “You have a small handful, relatively, of very large emitters of SO2, and that’s where the problem comes from.”
The solution to reducing sulfur from these power plants is pretty simple, however: install a scrubber system, which uses limestone slurry to interact with, and ultimately reduce, SO2 emissions from the plant. Fabish said a good, well-designed scrubber can reduce sulfur emissions in power plants by anywhere from 90 to 97 percent. The problem is, scrubber systems cost money — which is one reason why some plants haven’t yet installed them. Regions out of compliance may need to work with power plants to come up with plans to install scrubbers, or to begin operating their existing scrubbers correctly. Or, in some cases, it may be most cost-effective to shut down aging power plants that aren’t in compliance.
•••••
Friday, February 19, 2016
Why the Kochs Really Embraced Criminal Justice Reform
http://www.thomhartmann.com/blog/2015/11/why-kochs-really-embraced-criminal-justice-reform
Nov. 25, 2015 1:18 pm
By Thom Hartmann
It looks like the Koch brothers have scammed us once again.
When news first came out that Charles and David Koch -- the Koch brothers -- were supporting criminal justice reform efforts in Congress, many of us thought, "Wow, they're actually doing something good for once."
And for good reason, too.
•••••
Charles and David Koch may very well want to change drug laws, but the idea that they're making this push for criminal justice reform out of the goodness of their own hearts appears to be totally and completely false.
After all the publicity they've gotten from the media and the D.C. establishment, it now turns out that the Kochs appear to want to change sentencing laws to help protect potential white collar criminals like, well, themselves or their buddies.
As the New York Times reported Wednesday, Koch Industries are backing as part of a package of criminal justice reform legislation a bill that would change the way the feds can use a legal doctrine known as "mens rea" in white collar cases.
If the bill passes, white collar criminals could get away with breaking the law if they can simply say that they "didn't know" they or their business and colleagues were breaking the law when committing the crime in question.
They can't do this now -- it's that whole "ignorance of the law is no excuse" thing.
And while this whole issue of "did they or didn't they know" might sound like a minor bit of legal esoterica, it's not.
The power to convict someone of committing a crime regardless of whether or not they knew they were breaking the law when they committed that crime is an important tool for prosecutors, especially in white collar cases.
Justice Department officials, for example, told The New York Times that not having this tool might have prevented them from getting guilty pleas in a 2013 case involving a Colorado factory farm whose listeria-infected cantaloupes killed 33 people, as well as a 2012 case involving a pharmacy that killed 3 people by selling them mislabeled drugs.
In other words, letting white collar criminals claim ignorance of the law as a defense would make it really easy for them to get away with, well, murder. And, yes, according to the New York Times, that's what the Kochs are proposing.
•••••
As The New York Times reports, Koch Industries' general counsel and senior vice president Mark Holden "acknowledge[s]... that the company's efforts to pursue revisions in federal criminal law were inspired in part by a criminal case filed 15 years ago against Koch Industries claiming that it covered up releases of hazardous air pollution at a Texas oil refinery. Those charges resulted in a guilty plea by the company and a $20 million penalty."
•••••
Nov. 25, 2015 1:18 pm
By Thom Hartmann
It looks like the Koch brothers have scammed us once again.
When news first came out that Charles and David Koch -- the Koch brothers -- were supporting criminal justice reform efforts in Congress, many of us thought, "Wow, they're actually doing something good for once."
And for good reason, too.
•••••
Charles and David Koch may very well want to change drug laws, but the idea that they're making this push for criminal justice reform out of the goodness of their own hearts appears to be totally and completely false.
After all the publicity they've gotten from the media and the D.C. establishment, it now turns out that the Kochs appear to want to change sentencing laws to help protect potential white collar criminals like, well, themselves or their buddies.
As the New York Times reported Wednesday, Koch Industries are backing as part of a package of criminal justice reform legislation a bill that would change the way the feds can use a legal doctrine known as "mens rea" in white collar cases.
If the bill passes, white collar criminals could get away with breaking the law if they can simply say that they "didn't know" they or their business and colleagues were breaking the law when committing the crime in question.
They can't do this now -- it's that whole "ignorance of the law is no excuse" thing.
And while this whole issue of "did they or didn't they know" might sound like a minor bit of legal esoterica, it's not.
The power to convict someone of committing a crime regardless of whether or not they knew they were breaking the law when they committed that crime is an important tool for prosecutors, especially in white collar cases.
Justice Department officials, for example, told The New York Times that not having this tool might have prevented them from getting guilty pleas in a 2013 case involving a Colorado factory farm whose listeria-infected cantaloupes killed 33 people, as well as a 2012 case involving a pharmacy that killed 3 people by selling them mislabeled drugs.
In other words, letting white collar criminals claim ignorance of the law as a defense would make it really easy for them to get away with, well, murder. And, yes, according to the New York Times, that's what the Kochs are proposing.
•••••
As The New York Times reports, Koch Industries' general counsel and senior vice president Mark Holden "acknowledge[s]... that the company's efforts to pursue revisions in federal criminal law were inspired in part by a criminal case filed 15 years ago against Koch Industries claiming that it covered up releases of hazardous air pollution at a Texas oil refinery. Those charges resulted in a guilty plea by the company and a $20 million penalty."
•••••
Thoughts on Harper Lee and heroism
Just heard an interview with someone opining that "Go Wet a Watchman" was released only for money, under the influence of nefarious people, after her sister died. It would be nice if she left an explanation. Another possibility is that she felt it was more in touch with the reality of humans, who have both good and bad sides and are influenced so much by our culture, and knew how controversial it would be, that she held off publishing it, but decided to do so before she died. Stories about heroes are inspiring, and people like that do exist, but I think it is at least as inspiring when more ordinary people do heroic things, because it gives more hope that humanity can move forward, when it does not depend on only the occasional hero. It encourages all of us to act for the good, and to try to improve our own characters.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Taking vitamin D may benefit people with MS
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/aaon-tvd122315.php
I am unhappy that, as with other MS research I have seen, only patients with relapsing-remitting MS were treated. I have a friend with chronic MS, and he rejects the possibility of trying such treatments to see if they would help because he doesn't have relapsing-remitting MS.
Public Release: 30-Dec-2015
Taking vitamin D may benefit people with MS
American Academy of Neurology
Taking a high dose of vitamin D3 is safe for people with multiple sclerosis (MS) and may correct the body's hyperactive immune response, according to a study published in the Dece. 30, 2015, online issue of Neurology®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology.
Low levels of vitamin D in the blood are tied to an increased risk of developing MS. People who have MS and low levels of vitamin D are more likely to have greater disability and more disease activity.
For the study, 40 people with relapsing-remitting MS received either 10,400 IU or 800 IU of vitamin D3 supplements per day for six months. The current recommended daily allowance of vitamin D3 is 600 IU. Blood tests at the start of the study and again at three and six months measured the amount of vitamin D in the blood and the response in the immune system's T cells, which play a key role in MS.
Side effects from the vitamin supplements were minor and were not different between the people taking the high dose and the people taking the low dose. One person in each group had a relapse of disease activity.
The people taking the high dose had a reduction in the percentage of T cells related to MS activity. When the increase in vitamin D in the blood was greater than 18 nanograms per milliliter (ng/ml), every 5 ng/ml increase in vitamin D led to a 1 percent decrease in the percentage of interleukin 17 T cells in the blood. The people taking the low dose did not have any changes in their T cells.
While researchers are still determining the optimal level of vitamin D in the blood for people with MS, the people in the study taking the high dose of vitamin D reached a level that has been proposed as a target for people with MS. Vitamin D levels above 30 ng/ml are considered sufficient for the general population, but researchers noted that for people with MS, it may be that levels above 50 ng/ml are necessary to reduce disease activity. The group taking the low dose did not reach this target.
•••••
Researchers find that in race stereotypes, issues are not so black and white
I suggest reading the whole article at the following link.http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/asu-rft122815.php
Let us try to create hopeful ecologies for all people.
Public Release: 28-Dec-2015
Researchers find that in race stereotypes, issues are not so black and white
Arizona State University
Recent race-related events in Ferguson, Mo., St. Louis, Baltimore, Chicago, Charleston, S.C., and New York City -- all point to the continuing need to study and understand race relations in modern America. These events show how race and stereotypes are intertwined and can lead to explosive situations and protests.
Now, three Arizona State University researchers have approached this problem by asking, why do white Americans' stereotypes of black Americans take the particular forms they do? The answer, surprisingly, may have little to do with race, per se. Instead, many predominant race stereotypes reflect beliefs about how people from different environments, or 'ecologies,' are likely to think and behave.
In "Ecology-driven stereotypes override race stereotypes," published in the early online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, ASU doctoral students Keelah Williams and Oliver Sng, together with Steven Neuberg, an ASU Foundation Professor of Psychology, conducted a series of five studies examining the stereotypes people hold about individuals who live in resource-poor and unpredictable ('desperate') environments as compared to those who live in resource-sufficient and predictable ('hopeful') environments.
Research shows that desperate and hopeful environments tend to shape the behavior of those living within them by altering the costs and benefits of different behavioral strategies. Desperate ecologies tend to reward 'faster,' present-focused behaviors whereas hopeful ecologies tend to reward 'slower,' future-oriented behaviors.
•••••
But why are these ecology-driven stereotypes relevant for understanding the content of race stereotypes?
"In America, race and ecology are somewhat confounded -- whites are more likely to live in relatively hopeful ecologies, and blacks are more likely to live in relatively desperate ecologies," said Williams. "We wanted to examine whether Americans were actually using race as a cue to ecology, and if so, whether providing ecology information independently from race information would lead people to decrease their use of race stereotypes."
To assess the relationship between ecology and race stereotypes, the researchers first examined participants' stereotypes of individuals from desperate and hopeful ecologies (with no race information provided) and compared these responses to participants' stereotypes of blacks and whites (with no ecology information provided). The patterns were identical -- stereotypes of blacks mirrored stereotypes of individuals from desperate environments, and stereotypes of whites mirrored stereotypes of individuals from hopeful environments.
"However, when provided with information about both the race and ecology of others, individuals' inferences about others reflect their ecology rather than their race," Williams said. Black and white targets from desperate ecologies were stereotyped similarly, and black and white targets from hopeful ecologies were stereotyped similarly.
"In thinking about black and white individuals from hopeful and desperate ecologies, information about the individuals' home ecology trumped information about their race," Williams said.
•••••
because people are biased to exaggerate perceived threats, stereotypes of those from desperate ecologies are likely to be more extreme than is warranted by the actual behaviors of people living within those ecologies."
•••••
Music therapy increases effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation for COPD patients
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/tmsh-mti122315.php
Public Release: 23-Dec-2015
Music therapy increases effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation for COPD patients
The Mount Sinai Hospital / Mount Sinai School of Medicine
Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and other chronic respiratory disorders who received music therapy in conjunction with standard rehabilitation saw an improvement in symptoms, psychological well-being and quality of life compared to patients receiving rehabilitation alone, according to a new study by researchers at The Louis Armstrong Center of Music and Medicine at Mount Sinai Beth Israel (MSBI). Study findings were published this week in Respiratory Medicine and suggest that music therapy may be an effective addition to traditional treatment.
COPD is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States with symptoms including shortness of breath, wheezing, an ongoing cough, frequent colds or flu, and chest tightness. Patients with COPD are often socially isolated, unable to get to medical services and underserved in rehabilitation programs, making effective treatment difficult.
•••••
Public Release: 23-Dec-2015
Music therapy increases effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation for COPD patients
The Mount Sinai Hospital / Mount Sinai School of Medicine
Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and other chronic respiratory disorders who received music therapy in conjunction with standard rehabilitation saw an improvement in symptoms, psychological well-being and quality of life compared to patients receiving rehabilitation alone, according to a new study by researchers at The Louis Armstrong Center of Music and Medicine at Mount Sinai Beth Israel (MSBI). Study findings were published this week in Respiratory Medicine and suggest that music therapy may be an effective addition to traditional treatment.
COPD is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States with symptoms including shortness of breath, wheezing, an ongoing cough, frequent colds or flu, and chest tightness. Patients with COPD are often socially isolated, unable to get to medical services and underserved in rehabilitation programs, making effective treatment difficult.
•••••
Real tax rates
Something to remember when people cite tax rates on the rich.
http://glineq.blogspot.com/2016/02/are-us-taxes-progressive-all-way-to-top_16.html
Feb. 16, 2016
......
income reported by the rich is a “castrated” income, compared to a true economic income, because it deducts all kinds of “expenses” that no economist would consider as such but which the fiscal system allows. Vacations, travels, lunches, are treated as “business expenses” with which to offset income, so that the ultimately reported fiscal or political income may be significantly lower than a real income as defined by economists. Many of us have heard of business trips to France in July, entirely written off (thus reducing the fiscal or “political” income). Such expenses should normally be classified as any other consumption item and not as an income deduction. Similar examples abound. The most important thing is that such loopholes (as they are I think mistakenly called) are really designed and used only by the rich. Majority of people whose income is in wages do not have incentive or wherewithal or rationale to create false companies or consultancies whose main objective is to reduce their fiscal income. So, for the top income group, we are faced here too with a significant underestimate of income.
[Also, some companies provide goods and services such as big houses & private plains which are owned by the company, and not counted as income.]
......
Beware of Facebook Posts Asking Users to Type “Amen” to Help Children, Adults or Animals
https://socialmediaglobaldrive.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/beware-of-facebook-posts-asking-users-to-type-amen-to-help-children-adults-or-animals/
Daniel Maithya
Jan. 5, 2016
Beware of deceitful Facebook users who are posting pictures of sick, starving, dead and injured children, adults or animals on Facebook, to trick other Facebook users into commenting on them by typing “Amen,” in order to make them popular. This type of activity is another Like-Farming scam. The heartless and deceitful people who are tricking Facebook users into typing “Amen” are only taking advantage of caring Facebook users, who think they are helping out, by playing with their consciences. The scam may also ask Facebook users to compliment a child, an adult or an animal, or type “Amen” to be greatful for something.
It is important to remember that commenting on fake Facebook posts will only help to make the posts popular, which the owners, mostly scammers, will sell to rogue online marketing companies or other scammers, with the publicly available information of all the Facebook users who commented on them. Once spammers and rogue online marketing companies have received Facebook users’ information, they will start sending them hundreds of spam or unsolicited messages, phishing links that will take them to fake websites to steal their information, or malicious links that will take them to dangerous websites, that will infect their computers with Spyware or Trojan horse. The scammers may also send fraudulent messages claiming that their potential victims are so-called lottery winners and they need to send money in order to claim their prizes.
The messages below are just some of the few used by deceitful Facebook users to trick other Facebook users into commenting on their fake posts:
•“don’t scroll without typing amen.”
•“if you woke up this morning and your thankful every day while being bless scroll down and type amen”
•“how many likes can she get?”
•“this baby still cute, scroll if your heartless”
•“ignore if your heartless”
•“keep scrolling if your heartless”
•“Ignore If You Have No Heart”
•“PLEASE DONT IGNORE”
•“Don’t scroll without saying R.I.P”
•“This is so sad type AMEN and lets see how many amen’s and likes he can get”
•“Don’t scroll without showing respect”
•“Please don’t scroll down without saying “Amen”
•“Don’t Press Watch Without Typing Amen”
•“1 like = 1000 prayers Don’t scroll without typing amen”
•“Would You Save Your Mother? Type Yes Ignore NO”
•“Do you trust in prayers? If yes so please pray for this baby take a minute and type “Amen” your one amen is one pray if you don’t love children so you can skip this”
Also, if you have received a message stating Facebook will donate money to a child if you like, share or comment on some content, please do not follow the instructions in the message, instead, report it to Facebook.
Daniel Maithya
Jan. 5, 2016
Beware of deceitful Facebook users who are posting pictures of sick, starving, dead and injured children, adults or animals on Facebook, to trick other Facebook users into commenting on them by typing “Amen,” in order to make them popular. This type of activity is another Like-Farming scam. The heartless and deceitful people who are tricking Facebook users into typing “Amen” are only taking advantage of caring Facebook users, who think they are helping out, by playing with their consciences. The scam may also ask Facebook users to compliment a child, an adult or an animal, or type “Amen” to be greatful for something.
It is important to remember that commenting on fake Facebook posts will only help to make the posts popular, which the owners, mostly scammers, will sell to rogue online marketing companies or other scammers, with the publicly available information of all the Facebook users who commented on them. Once spammers and rogue online marketing companies have received Facebook users’ information, they will start sending them hundreds of spam or unsolicited messages, phishing links that will take them to fake websites to steal their information, or malicious links that will take them to dangerous websites, that will infect their computers with Spyware or Trojan horse. The scammers may also send fraudulent messages claiming that their potential victims are so-called lottery winners and they need to send money in order to claim their prizes.
The messages below are just some of the few used by deceitful Facebook users to trick other Facebook users into commenting on their fake posts:
•“don’t scroll without typing amen.”
•“if you woke up this morning and your thankful every day while being bless scroll down and type amen”
•“how many likes can she get?”
•“this baby still cute, scroll if your heartless”
•“ignore if your heartless”
•“keep scrolling if your heartless”
•“Ignore If You Have No Heart”
•“PLEASE DONT IGNORE”
•“Don’t scroll without saying R.I.P”
•“This is so sad type AMEN and lets see how many amen’s and likes he can get”
•“Don’t scroll without showing respect”
•“Please don’t scroll down without saying “Amen”
•“Don’t Press Watch Without Typing Amen”
•“1 like = 1000 prayers Don’t scroll without typing amen”
•“Would You Save Your Mother? Type Yes Ignore NO”
•“Do you trust in prayers? If yes so please pray for this baby take a minute and type “Amen” your one amen is one pray if you don’t love children so you can skip this”
Also, if you have received a message stating Facebook will donate money to a child if you like, share or comment on some content, please do not follow the instructions in the message, instead, report it to Facebook.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
January Smashed Another Global Temperature Record
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/january-global-temperature-record-20035
By Brian Kahn
Feb. 16, 2016
The calendar may have turned to 2016, but temperatures are picking up where 2015 left off. January was record warm, according to data released this week by NASA.
You may recall that last year was the hottest on record for the globe. And by NASA’s accounting, it ended with a bang. This past December was the warmest December on record and the most abnormally warm month on record, too.
That is until now.
This January was the warmest January on record by a large margin while also claiming the title of most anomalously warm month in 135 years of record keeping. The month was 1.13°C — or just a smidge more than 2°F — above normal. That tops December’s record of being 1.11°C — or just a smidge below 2°F — above average.
It marks the fourth month in a row where the globe has been more than 1°C (1.8°F) above normal. Incidentally, those are the only four months where the globe has topped that mark since record keeping began.
According to NASA, temperatures in some parts of the Arctic averaged up to 23°F above normal for the month. No, that’s not missing a decimal point.
The extreme warmth in the region sent sea ice dwindling to a new record low for January. Sea ice extent was 402,000 square miles below average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. That’s the equivalent of a missing area of sea ice almost four times the size of Colorado, and puts this year right in line with a trend of ever decreasing sea ice in the region as the climate warms.
•••••
Global heat is somewhat a symptom of El Niño. The climate phenomenon of warm water in the eastern tropical Pacific might have passed its peak, but is still providing a little boost to global temperatures.
The big driver, though, is human-caused climate change, according to a Climate Central analysis.
•••••
And regardless of whether 2016 sets a record or not, some scientists think the world has stepped up to a new period of global warming. That doesn’t mean every year will set a record, but “it seems to me quite likely that we have taken the next step up to a new level,” National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist Kevin Trenberth told Climate Central last month.
By Brian Kahn
Feb. 16, 2016
The calendar may have turned to 2016, but temperatures are picking up where 2015 left off. January was record warm, according to data released this week by NASA.
You may recall that last year was the hottest on record for the globe. And by NASA’s accounting, it ended with a bang. This past December was the warmest December on record and the most abnormally warm month on record, too.
That is until now.
This January was the warmest January on record by a large margin while also claiming the title of most anomalously warm month in 135 years of record keeping. The month was 1.13°C — or just a smidge more than 2°F — above normal. That tops December’s record of being 1.11°C — or just a smidge below 2°F — above average.
It marks the fourth month in a row where the globe has been more than 1°C (1.8°F) above normal. Incidentally, those are the only four months where the globe has topped that mark since record keeping began.
According to NASA, temperatures in some parts of the Arctic averaged up to 23°F above normal for the month. No, that’s not missing a decimal point.
The extreme warmth in the region sent sea ice dwindling to a new record low for January. Sea ice extent was 402,000 square miles below average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. That’s the equivalent of a missing area of sea ice almost four times the size of Colorado, and puts this year right in line with a trend of ever decreasing sea ice in the region as the climate warms.
•••••
Global heat is somewhat a symptom of El Niño. The climate phenomenon of warm water in the eastern tropical Pacific might have passed its peak, but is still providing a little boost to global temperatures.
The big driver, though, is human-caused climate change, according to a Climate Central analysis.
•••••
And regardless of whether 2016 sets a record or not, some scientists think the world has stepped up to a new period of global warming. That doesn’t mean every year will set a record, but “it seems to me quite likely that we have taken the next step up to a new level,” National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist Kevin Trenberth told Climate Central last month.
Supreme court nominations
If you believe God interferes in the affairs of humans, obviously God must have wanted President Obama to nominate Scalia's replacement, or he would have kept Scalia alive longer.
It looks like God chose for Scalia to die now as punishment and/or a warning to others because of the Republican members blocking President Obama's clean power plan to protect the environment we are all a part of.
(I stopped capitalizing "supreme court" after the Republicans on the court stole the election from Al Gore.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Ronald_Reagan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_1988
In President Reagan's last year in office, he nominated Anthony Kennedy to the supreme court, and the Democratic Senate confirmed him.
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Downpours Over Land Have Slowed Sea Level Rise
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/rain-and-snow-slowing-sea-level-rise-20024
By John Upton
Feb. 11, 2016
Vast volumes of water falling as rain and snow have stayed on land in recent years, slowing the rise of the seas, new research has revealed.
Water is constantly evaporating from oceans and moving to land, where it’s stored fleetingly in lakes, snowpacks, soil and tree canopies, before flowing back again.
The land “has been taking up water,” said NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist John Reager, who led the study published Thursday in Science. “That’s been slowing the rate of sea level rise.”
The effect may have been temporary, and it has not been enough to protect coastal residents from profound shoreline changes triggered by global warming.
The new study relied on NASA gravity data from 2002 to 2014 to track the changes in the amount of water stored on land. The finding excluded water stored in glaciers, which continued to decline as warming temperatures caused them to melt.
Because of global warming, high tides are lapping an average of 8 inches higher than they were in the 1800s, causing routine flooding along the East and Gulf coasts. Several feet or more of additional sea level rise is anticipated this century, threatening roads, pipelines, buildings and residents around the world.
•••••
Scientists aren’t sure whether the pattern they discovered is part of a longer-term trend linked to climate change and increasing storminess, or part of a shorter-term cycle linked to natural variations in the weather.
But many suspect it’s part of a cycle, which may mean seas will rise even more quickly than anticipated in the years ahead.
“We think it could even reverse and go in the other direction,” Reager said. “It could be an accelerator for sea level rise.”
By John Upton
Feb. 11, 2016
Vast volumes of water falling as rain and snow have stayed on land in recent years, slowing the rise of the seas, new research has revealed.
Water is constantly evaporating from oceans and moving to land, where it’s stored fleetingly in lakes, snowpacks, soil and tree canopies, before flowing back again.
The land “has been taking up water,” said NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist John Reager, who led the study published Thursday in Science. “That’s been slowing the rate of sea level rise.”
The effect may have been temporary, and it has not been enough to protect coastal residents from profound shoreline changes triggered by global warming.
The new study relied on NASA gravity data from 2002 to 2014 to track the changes in the amount of water stored on land. The finding excluded water stored in glaciers, which continued to decline as warming temperatures caused them to melt.
Because of global warming, high tides are lapping an average of 8 inches higher than they were in the 1800s, causing routine flooding along the East and Gulf coasts. Several feet or more of additional sea level rise is anticipated this century, threatening roads, pipelines, buildings and residents around the world.
•••••
Scientists aren’t sure whether the pattern they discovered is part of a longer-term trend linked to climate change and increasing storminess, or part of a shorter-term cycle linked to natural variations in the weather.
But many suspect it’s part of a cycle, which may mean seas will rise even more quickly than anticipated in the years ahead.
“We think it could even reverse and go in the other direction,” Reager said. “It could be an accelerator for sea level rise.”
Supreme Court Halts Clean Power Plan, with Implications Far Beyond the U.S.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/10022016/supreme-courts-order-block-clean-power-plan-has-implications-far-beyond-us
Reminds me of how Republican politicians reacted to the Flint, Michigan water problem.
By John H. Cushman Jr.
Feb. 10, 2016
The Supreme Court put on hold the linchpin of President Obama's climate policy, barring the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday from carrying out the administration's new Clean Power Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electric power plants.
It was a surprising decision of staggering proportions, with repercussions that go far beyond the U.S. electrical grid, threatening the credibility of the Paris Agreement on climate change reached by the world’s nations in December.
The Clean Power Plan, designed to reduce by nearly a third emissions from fossil fuel-burning electricity plants, is the central element of the pledge by the United States to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 26 percent by 2025.
It was an unusual intervention by the Supreme Court, given that a powerful appeals court had just weeks ago turned down a request by dozens of states and their allies in the fossil fuel industries to impose a stay on the new federal regulation.
By blocking enforcement of the rule, the justices sent a signal that conservatives on the court may be inclined to limit the agency's powers under the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court found in its 2007 decision Massachusetts v. EPA that the statute allows controls on carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming.
It would have taken years for the Clean Power Plan to take full effect, but the first step would have been for states to file implementation plans starting in September. Planning was well under way for that. About half the states had joined in appealing the rule, and some of them had declared that they would have refused to file state plans. Now, none of them will have to meet the rule's deadlines, which the EPA will be powerless to enforce.
•••••
The True Believer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer
I feel Eric Hoffer's book "The True Believer" is very relevant to the current U.S. presidential race, as well as many places around the world.
The True Believer: Thoughts On The Nature Of Mass Movements is a 1951 social psychology book by American writer Eric Hoffer that discusses the psychological causes of fanaticism.
The book analyzes and attempts to explain the motives of the various types of personalities that give rise to mass movements; why and how mass movements start, progress and end; and the similarities between them, whether religious, political, radical or reactionary. Hoffer argues that even when their stated goals or values differ mass movements are interchangeable, that adherents will often flip from one movement to another, and that the motivations for mass movements are interchangeable. Thus, religious, nationalist and social movements, whether radical or reactionary, tend to attract the same type of followers, behave in the same way and use the same tactics and rhetorical tools. As examples, the book often refers to Communism, Fascism, National Socialism, Christianity, Protestantism, and Islam.
The first and best-known of Hoffer's books, The True Believer has been published in 23 editions between 1951 and 2002.
•••••
A Psychologist's Open Letter to U.S. Voters
I suggest reading the whole article at the following link. Very interesting
Craig Malkin PhD
Sept. 15, 2016
Dear Fellow Voters,
I've been watching all of the presidential candidates with great interest—and deep concern. Concern for us. Concern for the fate of our country. Concern for our world.
As an expert on narcissism, I'm not especially worried that narcissists might make it to the White House. According to research(link is external), they've always been(link is external) there. And that shouldn't scare us anyway, because, just to be clear: Being a narcissist is not a diagnosis(link is external). It never has been. Narcissists are people higher in narcissistic traits than the average person, and while they may or may not be disordered, they all share one thing in common: They feel special(link is external). Some feel special enough to lead a nation, in fact.
What we should be far more concerned about is not whether politicians are narcissists—most are(link is external)—but how healthy(link is external) they are. And that's where you come in.
You have the power to shape the future of this country.
Politicians are groomed by us—by our applause, by our polls, by our votes. Whatever you seem to love or hate, they'll embrace or reject. So be careful what you applaud or attack. It matters what they—and all the little future leaders watching them—think you want in a leader.
That's why this isn't another rant about Donald Trump being a narcissist because:
1.Did you really need an expert to tell you that?
2.We don't need another article or book about obvious narcissists, because apparently we're pretty good at recognizing(link is external) them already.
Instead, I offer a guide, based on research, for what keeps leaders healthy, so you can applaud the right behaviors, and, I hope, punish the dangerous ones.
People high in healthy narcissism(link is external) inspire without undermining. They lead with conviction not cruelty. They bring out the best(link is external), not the worst, in the people around them. That's who we need leading the nation.
So here are some dos and don'ts:
1. Do applaud careful reflection.
Please, for everyone's sake, stop making politicians worried, on either side, that changing their minds when they have new information will be viewed as a weakness. Ditch the reflexive and empty attacks on "flip-flopping." When someone gives careful reasoning behind changing their position, it's not weakness; it's strength. It's called thinking. Weakness is barreling into a brick wall because that's the direction you first chose to head in, and, dammit, you stay the course. Want to know who worries most about seeming infallible at all costs? Extreme (unhealthy(link is external)) narcissists.
2. Don't applaud insults. •••
3. Do applaud feelings. •••
4. Don't applaud manipulation. •••
5. Do applaud collaborative behavior. •••
6. Don't applaud black-and-white thinking. •••
7. Do applaud apologies. •••
8. Don't applaud evasiveness. •••
9. Do applaud curiosity.
Smart leaders, and I've met a few, actively explore. They ask good questions. They don't always have answers and they let you know that. Their strength lies in their conviction that they'll solve a problem, not the certainty that they already have. They keep investigating the world if they're not sure where Russia is on the map. Beware the leader who's more invested in appearing to have all the answers than in asking the right questions. It's a sure sign that someone's more concerned with feeling special (link is external)than with helping you.
It's up to you, America. Narcissists will always be drawn to politics. But you have the power to make sure the narcissist in the Oval Office, or in any other elected office, isn't so addicted to feeling special that they forget the needs of the people who put them there in the first place.
P.S. Don't forget to vote!
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Low zinc levels may suggest potential breast-feeding problems
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/ps-lzl122215.php
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Low zinc levels may suggest potential breast-feeding problems
Penn State
Zinc levels in breast milk may be able to serve as an indicator of breast function during lactation, according to Penn State health researchers.
In previous studies, Shannon L. Kelleher and colleagues found that the protein ZnT2 is critical for secreting zinc into breast milk, and women who have mutations in the gene that encodes ZnT2 have substantially lower milk zinc levels, leading to severe zinc deficiency in exclusively breast-fed infants.
They had also found that in mice the deletion of ZnT2 alters milk composition and profoundly impairs the ability of mice to successfully nurse their offspring.
Now the researchers have found that genetic variation resulting in either loss or gain of function may be common in women and in some cases is associated with indicators of poor breast function. They suggest that by identifying women with abnormally low levels of zinc in breast milk, they may be able to more quickly recognize mothers who might have trouble breast-feeding.
In the current study, the researchers found that of 54 breast-feeding women, 36 percent had at least one non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -- or mutation -- in the protein ZnT2, and that genetic variation was associated with abnormal levels of zinc in their breast milk. Twelve previously unknown variants of ZnT2 were identified in the participants, and five of these variants were statistically associated with abnormal zinc levels in breast milk.
"We had no idea that genetic variation in ZnT2 would be so common," said Kelleher, associate professor of cellular and molecular physiology and pharmacology, College of Medicine.
•••••
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Low zinc levels may suggest potential breast-feeding problems
Penn State
Zinc levels in breast milk may be able to serve as an indicator of breast function during lactation, according to Penn State health researchers.
In previous studies, Shannon L. Kelleher and colleagues found that the protein ZnT2 is critical for secreting zinc into breast milk, and women who have mutations in the gene that encodes ZnT2 have substantially lower milk zinc levels, leading to severe zinc deficiency in exclusively breast-fed infants.
They had also found that in mice the deletion of ZnT2 alters milk composition and profoundly impairs the ability of mice to successfully nurse their offspring.
Now the researchers have found that genetic variation resulting in either loss or gain of function may be common in women and in some cases is associated with indicators of poor breast function. They suggest that by identifying women with abnormally low levels of zinc in breast milk, they may be able to more quickly recognize mothers who might have trouble breast-feeding.
In the current study, the researchers found that of 54 breast-feeding women, 36 percent had at least one non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -- or mutation -- in the protein ZnT2, and that genetic variation was associated with abnormal levels of zinc in their breast milk. Twelve previously unknown variants of ZnT2 were identified in the participants, and five of these variants were statistically associated with abnormal zinc levels in breast milk.
"We had no idea that genetic variation in ZnT2 would be so common," said Kelleher, associate professor of cellular and molecular physiology and pharmacology, College of Medicine.
•••••
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Cool roofs in China offer enhanced benefits during heat waves
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/dbnl-cri122215.php
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Cool roofs in China offer enhanced benefits during heat waves
New Berkeley Lab study uses regional climate model to compare heat waves to normal summer conditions
DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
It is well established that white roofs can help mitigate the urban heat island effect, reflecting the sun's energy back into space and reducing a city's temperature under normal weather conditions. In a new study of Guangzhou, China, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) researchers working with Chinese scientists found that during a heat wave, the effect is significantly more pronounced.
Using a regional climate model combined with an urban model that allowed researchers to adjust roof reflectance, they found that the average urban midday temperature was lowered by 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) during heat waves, or 50 percent more than the 0.8 degrees Celsius reduction for typical summer conditions.
•••••
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Cool roofs in China offer enhanced benefits during heat waves
New Berkeley Lab study uses regional climate model to compare heat waves to normal summer conditions
DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
It is well established that white roofs can help mitigate the urban heat island effect, reflecting the sun's energy back into space and reducing a city's temperature under normal weather conditions. In a new study of Guangzhou, China, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) researchers working with Chinese scientists found that during a heat wave, the effect is significantly more pronounced.
Using a regional climate model combined with an urban model that allowed researchers to adjust roof reflectance, they found that the average urban midday temperature was lowered by 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) during heat waves, or 50 percent more than the 0.8 degrees Celsius reduction for typical summer conditions.
•••••
Mothers should be cautious when discussing weight with daughters
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/uond-msb122215.php
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Mothers should be cautious when discussing weight with daughters
University of Notre Dame
How should a concerned mother discuss issues of diet and weight with her daughter? Very carefully, according to Erin Hillard, a developmental psychology doctoral student at the University of Notre Dame.
In an article recently published in the journal Body Image, Hillard and her colleagues, fellow Notre Dame psychology graduate student Rebecca A. Morrissey, and Notre Dame faculty members Dawn M. Gondoli, associate professor of psychology, and Alexandra F. Corning, research associate professor of psychology, reported on results from their study of a representative group of sixth- through eighth-grade girls and their mothers.
"Generally, we found that for the daughters who were being encouraged to lose weight by their mothers, outcomes were worse if their mothers were not also discussing their own weight concerns," Hillard said. "The daughters who were being encouraged to lose weight but whose moms were not also discussing their own weight concerns were more at risk for development of disordered eating, based on the higher scores on measures of dieting behavior and drive for thinness they reported in eighth grade."
Hillard acknowledged that the study findings as a whole suggested more about what mothers should not be talking about than what they should. "After all," she said, "the best outcomes were found for daughters whose mothers were not engaging in either type of conversation. They do shed light on the complexity of the issue of talking to children about their weight in ways that don't lead to poor health outcomes in the long run."
Public Release: 22-Dec-2015
Mothers should be cautious when discussing weight with daughters
University of Notre Dame
How should a concerned mother discuss issues of diet and weight with her daughter? Very carefully, according to Erin Hillard, a developmental psychology doctoral student at the University of Notre Dame.
In an article recently published in the journal Body Image, Hillard and her colleagues, fellow Notre Dame psychology graduate student Rebecca A. Morrissey, and Notre Dame faculty members Dawn M. Gondoli, associate professor of psychology, and Alexandra F. Corning, research associate professor of psychology, reported on results from their study of a representative group of sixth- through eighth-grade girls and their mothers.
"Generally, we found that for the daughters who were being encouraged to lose weight by their mothers, outcomes were worse if their mothers were not also discussing their own weight concerns," Hillard said. "The daughters who were being encouraged to lose weight but whose moms were not also discussing their own weight concerns were more at risk for development of disordered eating, based on the higher scores on measures of dieting behavior and drive for thinness they reported in eighth grade."
Hillard acknowledged that the study findings as a whole suggested more about what mothers should not be talking about than what they should. "After all," she said, "the best outcomes were found for daughters whose mothers were not engaging in either type of conversation. They do shed light on the complexity of the issue of talking to children about their weight in ways that don't lead to poor health outcomes in the long run."
Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph Winds: A Warning Shot Across Our Bow
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-patricias-215-mph-winds-a-warning-shot-across-our-bow
By: Jeff Masters , 5:12 PM GMT on February 08, 2016
The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Patricia--rated the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere with 200 mph sustained winds on October 23, 2015--was actually much stronger, with 215 mph winds, said the National Hurricane Center (NHC) last week, after completing a detailed post-season review. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a surface wind of 209 mph in Patricia at 0600 UTC October 23 using a Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR); this was the highest surface wind ever measured in a tropical cyclone, worldwide, since the technology was introduced in the mid-1980s. A 207 mph surface wind was measured by the SFMR instrument on a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft during an eyewall penetration about twelve hours later, at 1732 UTC. In between those two times, there were no measurements by the Hurricane Hunters, but satellite imagery showed that the hurricane improved in organization up until about 1200 UTC, with the eye warming and the eyewall cloud tops cooling. NHC thus assigned Patricia a peak intensity of 215 mph winds with a central pressure of 872 mb at that time. Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph winds officially tie it with the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961 for strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in world history, and Patricia's lowest pressure of 872 mb makes it the second most intense tropical cyclone in world history, behind the 870 mb measured in the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979 (Tip's top sustained winds of "only" 190 mph were not as high as Patricia's, since Tip was a large, sprawling storm that did not have a tiny concentrated area of extreme eyewall winds.) Note that that the maximum sustained winds estimated in typhoons like Nancy during the 1940s to 1960s are considered by hurricane experts to be too strong; a re-analysis of Super Typhoon Nancy would likely find that its winds were considerably slower than 215 mph. I regard Patricia as unmatched for the strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in recorded history. It is possible that previous hurricanes where hurricane hunter flights were not available, such as the Category 5 1935 Labor Day hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys, had peak winds on par with Patricia, though.
In the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT (06 UTC) October 23, 2015, Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 95 mb, to 886 mb, and the winds increased by 120 mph, to 205 mph, making Patricia the fastest-intensifying hurricane (by winds) and second-fastest intensifying hurricane (by pressure) ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.
•••••
Another remarkable record: a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft flying through the eye at 17:33 UTC October 23, several hours after the time of estimated peak intensity, measured a maximum 700-mb temperature of 32.2°C (90°F). This is the warmest 700-mb eye temperature ever measured in a tropical cyclone world-wide.
•••••
Hurricane Patricia's remarkable intensification was made possible by very light wind shear and record warm ocean waters. During its rapid intensification phase, Patricia tracked over a large expanse of anomalously warm waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 30.5°-31°C (87°-88°F). These were the highest SSTs ever observed over this region in mid-October.
•••••
Several of NHC's forecasts for Patricia had intensity errors through 48 hours that were the highest on record since NHC took over warning responsibility in the eastern North Pacific basin in 1988: up to 120 mph off, beating the record 115 mph error for a forecast made in Hurricane Linda of 1997. None of the intensity models anticipated the degree to which Patricia would intensify, nor how quickly it would occur, and the official intensity forecasts for Patricia from NHC severely underestimated the rapid intensification that occurred and failed to explicitly show rapid intensification until it was actually occurring. It should be noted, however, that a key model used to make intensity forecasts--the SHIPS Rapid Intensity (RI) guidance--was temporarily unavailable before Patricia’s rapid intensification began due to missing satellite inputs. Having these data in real time would likely have resulted in better intensity forecasts than those that were made.
•••••
Consider, now, if the bad intensity forecasts for Hurricane Patricia had been made for a Hurricane Patricia clone that had ended up making landfall in a heavily populated area such as Miami, Galveston/Houston, Tampa, or New Orleans, but without the hurricane weakening dramatically at landfall. A 15-mile diameter area of 215 mph winds--EF5 tornado speeds--would have caused near-total destruction. Since the storm would have been significantly under-warned for, a full evacuation might not have been completed, resulting in one of the deadliest hurricane tragedies in human history. The ten-year drought in major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is going to end someday, and an onslaught of major hurricanes like we experienced in 2004 - 2005--seven landfalls by major hurricanes in two years--could happen again. As I discussed in my 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns, the consensus among hurricane experts is that climate change is likely to bring an increase in the number of high-end hurricanes like Patricia. Now that ocean temperatures are considerably warmer than they were a few decades ago, the maximum potential intensity a hurricane can reach is higher, and we should expect to see a few Patricias sprinkled among the inevitable phalanxes of major hurricanes that will assault our shores in the coming decades.
•••••
Progress is being made in improving hurricane intensity forecasts, thanks to the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which aims to reduce hurricane track and intensity errors by 50% by 2019. Unless some dramatic breakthroughs in intensity forecasting occur in the next three years, though, we are going to fall short of that goal. But if we really want to crack the intensity forecast puzzle, we should be spending far more on hurricane research than we do
•••••
Will we wait again to see unprecedented mayhem like during Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012 before responding to the need to spend more money on better hurricane forecasts? Consider Patricia a shot across our bow--we have been warned (again.) It is up to us to respond.
By: Jeff Masters , 5:12 PM GMT on February 08, 2016
The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Patricia--rated the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere with 200 mph sustained winds on October 23, 2015--was actually much stronger, with 215 mph winds, said the National Hurricane Center (NHC) last week, after completing a detailed post-season review. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a surface wind of 209 mph in Patricia at 0600 UTC October 23 using a Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR); this was the highest surface wind ever measured in a tropical cyclone, worldwide, since the technology was introduced in the mid-1980s. A 207 mph surface wind was measured by the SFMR instrument on a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft during an eyewall penetration about twelve hours later, at 1732 UTC. In between those two times, there were no measurements by the Hurricane Hunters, but satellite imagery showed that the hurricane improved in organization up until about 1200 UTC, with the eye warming and the eyewall cloud tops cooling. NHC thus assigned Patricia a peak intensity of 215 mph winds with a central pressure of 872 mb at that time. Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph winds officially tie it with the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961 for strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in world history, and Patricia's lowest pressure of 872 mb makes it the second most intense tropical cyclone in world history, behind the 870 mb measured in the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979 (Tip's top sustained winds of "only" 190 mph were not as high as Patricia's, since Tip was a large, sprawling storm that did not have a tiny concentrated area of extreme eyewall winds.) Note that that the maximum sustained winds estimated in typhoons like Nancy during the 1940s to 1960s are considered by hurricane experts to be too strong; a re-analysis of Super Typhoon Nancy would likely find that its winds were considerably slower than 215 mph. I regard Patricia as unmatched for the strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in recorded history. It is possible that previous hurricanes where hurricane hunter flights were not available, such as the Category 5 1935 Labor Day hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys, had peak winds on par with Patricia, though.
In the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT (06 UTC) October 23, 2015, Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 95 mb, to 886 mb, and the winds increased by 120 mph, to 205 mph, making Patricia the fastest-intensifying hurricane (by winds) and second-fastest intensifying hurricane (by pressure) ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.
•••••
Another remarkable record: a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft flying through the eye at 17:33 UTC October 23, several hours after the time of estimated peak intensity, measured a maximum 700-mb temperature of 32.2°C (90°F). This is the warmest 700-mb eye temperature ever measured in a tropical cyclone world-wide.
•••••
Hurricane Patricia's remarkable intensification was made possible by very light wind shear and record warm ocean waters. During its rapid intensification phase, Patricia tracked over a large expanse of anomalously warm waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 30.5°-31°C (87°-88°F). These were the highest SSTs ever observed over this region in mid-October.
•••••
Several of NHC's forecasts for Patricia had intensity errors through 48 hours that were the highest on record since NHC took over warning responsibility in the eastern North Pacific basin in 1988: up to 120 mph off, beating the record 115 mph error for a forecast made in Hurricane Linda of 1997. None of the intensity models anticipated the degree to which Patricia would intensify, nor how quickly it would occur, and the official intensity forecasts for Patricia from NHC severely underestimated the rapid intensification that occurred and failed to explicitly show rapid intensification until it was actually occurring. It should be noted, however, that a key model used to make intensity forecasts--the SHIPS Rapid Intensity (RI) guidance--was temporarily unavailable before Patricia’s rapid intensification began due to missing satellite inputs. Having these data in real time would likely have resulted in better intensity forecasts than those that were made.
•••••
Consider, now, if the bad intensity forecasts for Hurricane Patricia had been made for a Hurricane Patricia clone that had ended up making landfall in a heavily populated area such as Miami, Galveston/Houston, Tampa, or New Orleans, but without the hurricane weakening dramatically at landfall. A 15-mile diameter area of 215 mph winds--EF5 tornado speeds--would have caused near-total destruction. Since the storm would have been significantly under-warned for, a full evacuation might not have been completed, resulting in one of the deadliest hurricane tragedies in human history. The ten-year drought in major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is going to end someday, and an onslaught of major hurricanes like we experienced in 2004 - 2005--seven landfalls by major hurricanes in two years--could happen again. As I discussed in my 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns, the consensus among hurricane experts is that climate change is likely to bring an increase in the number of high-end hurricanes like Patricia. Now that ocean temperatures are considerably warmer than they were a few decades ago, the maximum potential intensity a hurricane can reach is higher, and we should expect to see a few Patricias sprinkled among the inevitable phalanxes of major hurricanes that will assault our shores in the coming decades.
•••••
Progress is being made in improving hurricane intensity forecasts, thanks to the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which aims to reduce hurricane track and intensity errors by 50% by 2019. Unless some dramatic breakthroughs in intensity forecasting occur in the next three years, though, we are going to fall short of that goal. But if we really want to crack the intensity forecast puzzle, we should be spending far more on hurricane research than we do
•••••
Will we wait again to see unprecedented mayhem like during Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012 before responding to the need to spend more money on better hurricane forecasts? Consider Patricia a shot across our bow--we have been warned (again.) It is up to us to respond.
Unfortunately, it is safe to assume that we will ignore the warning until it's too late.
Bacteria Have Ability to 'See,' Eye-Opening Study Finds
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/bacteria-have-ability-see-eye-opening-study-finds-n515141
by Maggie Fox
Feb. 9, 2016
Bacteria can see, using their entire one-celled selves as a tiny camera lens to focus light, researchers reported Tuesday.
The ability goes beyond just a vague sense of where the light is, and allows the one-celled organisms to find just the right spot, the team reported in the journal eLife.
•••••
"Spherical cyanobacteria are probably the world's smallest and oldest example of a camera eye."
They calculate that the bacteria can focus much like a human eye, although the image would be much blurrier.
"Our observation that bacteria are optical objects is pretty obvious with hindsight, but we never thought of it until we saw it," Mullineaux said.
"And no one else noticed it before either, despite the fact that scientists have been looking at bacteria under microscopes for the last 340 years."
Other bacteria probably do it, too, the researchers added.
Genome entrepreneur Craig Venter reported in 2004 that he had found genes in oceanic bacteria that are similar to the genes that control vision in people.
by Maggie Fox
Feb. 9, 2016
Bacteria can see, using their entire one-celled selves as a tiny camera lens to focus light, researchers reported Tuesday.
The ability goes beyond just a vague sense of where the light is, and allows the one-celled organisms to find just the right spot, the team reported in the journal eLife.
•••••
"Spherical cyanobacteria are probably the world's smallest and oldest example of a camera eye."
They calculate that the bacteria can focus much like a human eye, although the image would be much blurrier.
"Our observation that bacteria are optical objects is pretty obvious with hindsight, but we never thought of it until we saw it," Mullineaux said.
"And no one else noticed it before either, despite the fact that scientists have been looking at bacteria under microscopes for the last 340 years."
Other bacteria probably do it, too, the researchers added.
Genome entrepreneur Craig Venter reported in 2004 that he had found genes in oceanic bacteria that are similar to the genes that control vision in people.
Condoleezza Rice Aides, Colin Powell Also Got Classified Info on Personal Emails
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rice-aides-powell-also-got-classified-info-personal-emails-n511181
by Ken Dilanian
Feb 4, 2016
State Department officials have determined that classified information was sent to the personal email accounts of former Secretary of State Colin Powell and the senior staff of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, NBC News has learned.
In an interview with NBC News, Powell challenged the conclusion, saying nothing that went to his personal account was secret. A Rice spokeswoman said the emails were about diplomatic communications.
In a letter to Undersecretary of State Patrick Kennedy dated Feb. 3, State Department Inspector General Steve Linick said that the State Department has determined that 12 emails examined from State's archives contained national security information now classified "Secret" or "Confidential." The letter was obtained by NBC News.
Two of the messages were sent to Powell's personal account, and 10 were sent to personal accounts of Rice's senior aides, the letter said.
None of the messages were marked classified when originally sent, and none were determined to include information from the intelligence community, Linick said in the document.
•••••
by Ken Dilanian
Feb 4, 2016
State Department officials have determined that classified information was sent to the personal email accounts of former Secretary of State Colin Powell and the senior staff of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, NBC News has learned.
In an interview with NBC News, Powell challenged the conclusion, saying nothing that went to his personal account was secret. A Rice spokeswoman said the emails were about diplomatic communications.
In a letter to Undersecretary of State Patrick Kennedy dated Feb. 3, State Department Inspector General Steve Linick said that the State Department has determined that 12 emails examined from State's archives contained national security information now classified "Secret" or "Confidential." The letter was obtained by NBC News.
Two of the messages were sent to Powell's personal account, and 10 were sent to personal accounts of Rice's senior aides, the letter said.
None of the messages were marked classified when originally sent, and none were determined to include information from the intelligence community, Linick said in the document.
•••••
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