Thursday, May 20, 2021

Total deaths due to COVID-19 underestimated by 20% in US counties


https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-05/buso-tdd052021.php

 

News Release 20-May-2021
Deaths caused by indirect effects of the pandemic emphasize the need for policy changes that address widening health and racial inequities
Boston University School of Medicine


Deaths caused by indirect effects of the pandemic emphasize the need for policy changes that address widening health and racial inequities.

More than 15 months into the pandemic, the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 is nearing 600,000. But COVID-19 deaths may be underestimated by 20%, according to a new, first-of-its-kind study from Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH), the University of Pennsylvania, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Published in the journal PLOS Medicine, the study uses data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to estimate the number of deaths in 2,096 counties from January to December 2020 above what would be expected in a normal year, or "excess deaths." For every 100 excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, there were another 20 excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19. In other words, 20 out of every 120 excess deaths, or 17%, were not directly attributed to COVID.

The researchers found that the proportion of these excess deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19 was higher in counties with lower average socioeconomic status and less formal education, as well as in counties located in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents--who were already at high risk of dying directly from COVID-19--also reported a higher proportion of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19.



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