COVID-19: UW study reports 'staggering' death rate in US among those infected who show symptoms

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/uow-cus051820.php

News Release 18-May-2020
University of Washington


Is COVID-19 more deadly than the flu?

It's a lot more deadly, concludes a new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. The study's results also project a grim future if the U.S. doesn't put up a strong fight against the spread of the virus.

The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

"COVID-19 infection is deadlier than flu -- we can put that debate to rest," said study author Anirban Basu, professor of health economics and Stergachis Family Endowed Director of the CHOICE Institute at the UW School of Pharmacy.

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The COVID-19 death rate, the study adds, means that if the same number of people in the U.S. are infected by the end of the year as were infected with the influenza virus -- roughly 35.5 million in 2018-2019 -- then nearly 500,000 people will die of COVID-19.

However, the novel coronavirus is more infectious than the influenza virus, Basu noted. So, a conservative estimate of 20% of the U.S. population becoming infected by the end of the year -- with the current trends in social distancing and health care supply continuing, while accounting for those infected who will recover asymptomatically -- could result in the number of deaths climbing to between 350,000 and 1.2 million.

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Basu also noted that the model should not be viewed as the "last word" on estimating the COVID-19 fatality rate, but as one of several methods used to measure the impact of the virus.

"The infection fatality ratio estimate is itself dynamic in nature," Basu said. "The overall estimate can both increase or decrease in the future, depending on the demographics where the infections will be spreading. It is possible, as the infection spreads to more rural counties of the country, the overall infection fatality rate will increase due to the lack of access to necessary health care delivery."