New data gives hope for meeting the Paris climate targets

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/oct/30/new-data-gives-hope-for-meeting-the-paris-climate-targets

Dana Nuccitelli
Monday 30 October 2017

Over the past half-century, growth in the global economy and carbon pollution have been tied together. When the global economy has been strong, we’ve consumed more energy, which has translated into burning more fossil fuels and releasing more carbon pollution. But over the past four years, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions have been decoupled. The global economy has continued to grow, while data from the EU Joint Research Centre shows carbon pollution has held fairly steady.

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China’s shift away from coal to clean energy has been largely responsible for this decoupling. Due to its large population (1.4 billion) – more than four times that of the USA (323 million) and nearly triple the EU (510 million) – and rapid growth in its economy and coal power supply, China has become the world’s largest net carbon polluter (though still less than half America’s per-person carbon emissions, and on par with those of Europeans). But as with the global total, China’s carbon pollution has flattened out since 2013.

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In 2016, American carbon pollution fell to below 1993 levels. The emissions decline began around 2008, which is also when natural gas, solar, and wind energy began rapidly replacing coal in the power grid.

The Trump administration has done everything in its power to reverse that trend. It began the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the process to repeal the Clean Power Plan, has begun censoring EPA climate scientists and deleting climate change information from government websites, and proposed to prop up the dirty, failing coal industry with taxpayer-funded subsidies.

And yet, while these steps can slow the decline in American carbon pollution, the transition from coal to clean energy will nevertheless persist. Coal simply can no longer compete with cheaper, cleaner sources of energy, and the next American president can quickly reverse many of the Trump administration’s anti-climate orders.

In the meantime, many cities, states, and businesses have declared that they “will continue to support climate action to meet the Paris Agreement.” California has led the way, having passed climate legislation including the implementation of a carbon cap and trade system over a decade ago. The state’s economy has grown rapidly as its carbon pollution has fallen. California now gets over 25% of its electricity from renewables (another 10% from hydroelectric), and just 4% from coal.

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To have a realistic chance of meeting the Paris climate target and avoiding 2°C global warming above pre-industrial temperatures, global carbon pollution likely needs to peak by 2020. That goal remains within reach, as we now appear very close to peak global carbon emissions.

That’s just a start – we still need a rapid decline in carbon after we reach the peak – but with the flood of bad climate news over the past year, it’s nice to see that we still have hope to prevent the worst climate change consequences.