Climate change at work? Weather Service calls for third straight mild winter.

Cold temps that used to occur regularly are now regarded as unbearably extreme.

I remember a few years ago when the Atlanta winter was mild until the very end, when we had a couple of weeks of really cold weather. The rest of the year, people were talking about how cold the winter had been, even though in reality it had almost all been very mild. Shows why science requires written records.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/19/climate-change-at-work-weather-service-calls-for-third-straight-mild-winter/?utm_term=.f0e720057605

By Jason Samenow October 19, 2017

If you’re itching for outbreaks of the polar vortex and waist-deep snow, the upcoming winter may not be your cup of tea. And, thanks to climate change, the odds of brutally cold winters are decaying.

For the third time in as many years, the nation — on balance — should expect warmer-than-normal temperatures, according to the National Weather Service, which released its winter outlook on Thursday.

The Weather Service favors warmer-than-normal conditions for the southern two-thirds of the Lower 48, including the Mid-Atlantic. Only a sliver of the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest is expected to experience colder-than-normal temperatures.

The mild forecast follows back-to-back lackluster winters across the nation.

Last winter was practically the winter without a winter. Spring arrived weeks ahead of time, and Chicago basked in record 70-degree warmth in February. It ranked as the sixth-warmest winter on record.

The winter before, with the exception of the blockbuster January snowstorm along the East Coast, was quite tame, as well, ranking as the warmest on record. Temperatures surged through the 70s to the Canadian border on the East Coast’s warmest Christmas Eve on record.

Climate warming from rising concentrations of carbon dioxide is exerting an effect on winter temperatures, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. “It does, undoubtedly, play a role,” he said in a call with reporters. “The increase in CO2 factors into our model forecast.”

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He further said that while winters are warming, on average, natural variability continues to play the dominant role in the ultimate outcome of the season’s temperatures.

Still, Halpert said “there was nothing to indicate” that the nation will have punishing outbreaks of the polar vortex as experienced in the winter of 2013-2014 and, to a lesser degree, the winter that followed. But he wouldn’t totally rule out some penetrating outbreaks of extreme cold, explaining that they usually can’t be predicted until about a week or so in advance.

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