Long, hot summer of fire, floods fits predictions

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100813/ap_on_sc/us_sci_climate_breakdown;_ylt=Alu49.XlqbKINbkN2Xi36OGs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMDVmN3EyBHBvcwMxMTcEc2VjA2FjY29yZGlvbl9zY2llbmNlBHNsawNsb25naG90c3VtbWU-

By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent Charles J. Hanley, Ap Special Correspondent – Fri Aug 13, 3:09 am ET

NEW YORK – Floods, fires, melting ice and feverish heat: From smoke-choked Moscow to water-soaked Iowa and the High Arctic, the planet seems to be having a midsummer breakdown. It's not just a portent of things to come, scientists say, but a sign of troubling climate change already under way.

The weather-related cataclysms of July and August fit patterns predicted by climate scientists, the Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization says — although those scientists always shy from tying individual disasters directly to global warming.

The experts now see an urgent need for better ways to forecast extreme events like Russia's heat wave and wildfires and the record deluge devastating Pakistan. They'll discuss such tools in meetings this month and next in Europe and America, under United Nations, U.S. and British government sponsorship.

"There is no time to waste," because societies must be equipped to deal with global warming, says British government climatologist Peter Stott.

He said modelers of climate systems are "very keen" to develop supercomputer modeling that would enable more detailed linking of cause and effect as a warming world shifts jet streams and other atmospheric currents. Those changes can wreak weather havoc.

The U.N.'s network of climate scientists — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — has long predicted that rising global temperatures would produce more frequent and intense heat waves, and more intense rainfalls. In its latest assessment, in 2007, the Nobel Prize-winning panel went beyond that. It said these trends "have already been observed," in an increase in heat waves since 1950, for example.

Still, climatologists generally refrain from blaming warming for this drought or that flood, since so many other factors also affect the day's weather.

Stott and NASA's Gavin Schmidt, at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, said it's better to think in terms of odds: Warming might double the chances for heat waves, for example. "That is exactly what's happening," Schmidt said, "a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes."

The WMO pointed out that this summer's events fit the international scientists' projections of "more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

In fact, in key cases they're a perfect fit:

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See the article for details on effects on:
RUSSIA
PAKISTAN
CHINA
UNITED STATES
ARCTIC

Worldwide temperature readings, meanwhile, show that this January-June was the hottest first half of a year since recordkeeping began in the mid-19th century. Meteorologists say 17 nations have recorded all-time-high temperatures in 2010, more than in any other year.

Scientists blame the warming on carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases pouring into the atmosphere from power plants, cars and trucks, furnaces and other fossil fuel-burning industrial and residential sources.

Experts are growing ever more vocal in urging sharp cutbacks in emissions, to protect the climate that has nurtured modern civilization.

"Reducing emissions is something everyone is capable of," Nanjing-based climatologist Tao Li told an academic journal in China, now the world's No. 1 emitter, ahead of the U.S.

But not everyone is willing to act.

The U.S. remains the only major industrialized nation not to have legislated caps on carbon emissions, after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid last week withdrew climate legislation in the face of resistance from Republicans and some Democrats.

The U.S. inaction, dating back to the 1990s, is a key reason global talks have bogged down for a pact to succeed the expiring Kyoto Protocol. That is the relatively weak accord on emissions cuts adhered to by all other industrialized states.

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And China has had severe flooding, triggering landslides:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38686311/ns/weather/

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Elevated Heart Rate Over Time Linked to Significant Risk of Death

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100812151640.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 13, 2010) — An elevated resting heart rate that develops or persists during follow-up is associated with a significantly increased risk of death, whether from heart disease or other causes, researchers from the Ronald O. Perelman Heart Institute at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center found studying outcomes in more than 9,000 patients.

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In their study, researchers discovered that development of a heart rate of 84 beats per minute or greater that either developed or persisted in patients during the study's average five-year time span was linked to a 55 percent greater risk of cardiovascular death and a 79 percent greater risk of death from all causes. Although the participants had hypertension, the scientists adjusted for this fact as well as for other cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy heart rate is between 60 and 80 beats per minute.

Even incremental increases in heart rate were associated with increased risk of death. For example, every extra 10 beats per minute higher than a normal resting pulse was associated with a 16 percent increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease and a 25 percent greater risk of all-cause death.

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Acetaminophen Use in Adolescents Linked to Doubled Risk of Asthma

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100813082713.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 13, 2010) — New evidence linking the use of acetaminophen to development of asthma and eczema suggests that even monthly use of the drug in adolescents may more than double risk of asthma in adolescents compared to those who used none at all; yearly use was associated with a 50 percent increase in the risk of asthma.

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The myth of the Social Security system's financial shortfall

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20100808,0,1359956.column?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fbusiness+%28L.A.+Times+-+Business%29

ByMichael Hiltzik
August 8, 2010

In recent years, during which conservatives have intensified their efforts to destroy one of the few U.S. government programs that actually works as intended, the report's publication has become an occasion for hand-wringing and crocodile tears over the (supposedly) parlous state of the system's finances.

This year's report, which came out Thursday, is no exception. Within minutes of its release, some analysts were claiming that it projected a "shortfall" for Social Security this year of $41 billion.

Before we get to the bogus math behind that statement — which doesn't actually appear in the report — let's look at the encouraging findings by the agency's trustees, who include the secretaries of Labor, the Treasury, and Health and Human Services.

The trustees indicated that the program has made it through the worst economic downturn in its life span essentially unscathed. In fact, by at least one measure it's fiscally stronger than a year ago: Its projected actuarial deficit over the next 75 years (a measurement required by law) is smaller now than a year ago.

The old age and disability trust funds, which hold the system's surplus, grew in 2009 by $122 billion, to $2.5 trillion. The program paid out $675 billion to 53 million beneficiaries — men, women and children — with administrative costs of 0.9% of expenditures. For all you privatization advocates out there, you'd be lucky to find a retirement and insurance plan of this complexity with an administrative fee less than five or 10 times that ratio.

This year and next, the program's costs will exceed its take from the payroll tax and income tax on benefits. That's an artifact of the recession, and it's expected to reverse from 2012 through 2014. The difference is covered by the program's other income source — interest on the Treasury bonds in the Social Security trust fund.

That brings us back to this supposed $41-billion "shortfall," which exists only if you decide not to count interest due of about $118 billion.

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Since 1983, the money from all payroll taxpayers has been building up the Social Security surplus, swelling the trust fund. What's happened to the money? It's been borrowed by the federal government and spent on federal programs — housing, stimulus, war and a big income tax cut for the richest Americans, enacted under President George W. Bush in 2001.

In other words, money from the taxpayers at the lower end of the income scale has been spent to help out those at the higher end. That transfer — that loan, to characterize it accurately — is represented by the Treasury bonds held by the trust fund.

The interest on those bonds, and the eventual redemption of the principal, should have to be paid for by income taxpayers, who reaped the direct benefits from borrowing the money.

So all the whining you hear about how redeeming the trust fund will require a tax hike we can't afford is simply the sound of wealthy taxpayers trying to skip out on a bill about to come due. The next time someone tells you the trust fund is full of worthless IOUs, try to guess what tax bracket he's in.

It should come as no surprise that one of the leading advocates for cutting Social Security benefits or raising payroll taxes is the Wall Street billionaire Peter G. Peterson, who has pumped millions into an alarmist campaign about the federal deficit.

But ask Peterson, who made his money as a hedge fund manager, about closing the enormous tax loophole enjoyed by hedge fund managers — it costs the Treasury a couple of billion dollars a year — and he warns that it would force hedge funds to move overseas, which would be bad for the U.S. economy. This is the sort of argument my mother used to describe as: "I like me, who do you like?"

The trust fund may not last forever, but reports of its demise are certainly premature. The trustees say it will be drawn down to zero in 2037, at which point the program will only have enough money coming in from taxes to pay 78% of the benefits due under current law. So sometime in the next quarter-century — but by no means right now — does anything have to be fixed, say through a hike in the payroll tax ceiling (or, better, its elimination)?

That 2037 deadline, in truth, is a moving target. It's based on long-term projections, which become more uncertain the further out you look. The estimated date is very sensitive to forecasts of immigration, wage and economic growth, and birth and death rates, all of which are uncertain. Over the last 10 years, it has fluctuated between 2037 and 2042, mostly due to economic factors. It has held steady at 2037 for two years despite the downturn, but that's still better than the projection in 1998, which was for exhaustion in 2032.

In short, if the new trustees report gets examined wisely and responsibly, it should put an end to all the current talk about raising the retirement age or cutting benefits. Social Security doesn't contribute a dime to the federal deficit, and in these days of market stagnation and cutbacks in pensions, it has never been more important to millions of Americans. The Pete Petersons of the world should find themselves a different target.

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'Fused' People Eager to Die and Kill for Their Group

This would be less of a problem if people could see their "group" as the human race, or even the whole of nature.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100812111059.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 12, 2010) — People with extremely strong ties to their countries or groups are not only willing, but eager, to sacrifice themselves to save their compatriots, according to new psychology research from The University of Texas at Austin.

In a study to appear in Psychological Science, Bill Swann, professor of psychology, and a team of researchers found the majority of "fused" people, those who view themselves as completely immersed in a group (be it ethnic, national or other), are willing to commit extreme acts for the good of their compatriots.

"Fused group members believe that through suicide, their lives will achieve tremendous significance," Swann said. "Their strong sense of moral agency drives them to see not only that justice is done, but to also take an active role in its implementation."

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Swann said the study may offer new insights into the mindsets of groups with extremist ideology.

"In an era in which the act of sacrificing one's own life for the group has had world-altering consequences, it is critical to learn more about the psychological underpinnings of such activity," Swann said.

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Human Noise Pollution in Ocean Can Lead Fish Away from Good Habitats and Off to Their Death

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100803212015.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 3, 2010) — The growing amount of human noise pollution in the ocean could lead fish away from good habitat and off to their death, according to new research from a UK-led team working on the Great Barrier Reef.

After developing for weeks at sea, baby tropical fish rely on natural noises to find the coral reefs where they can survive and thrive. However, the researchers found that short exposure to artificial noise makes fish become attracted to inappropriate sounds.

In earlier research, Dr Steve Simpson, Senior Researcher in the University of Bristol's School of Biological Sciences discovered that baby reef fish use sounds made by fish, shrimps and sea urchins as a cue to find coral reefs. With human noise pollution from ships, wind farms and oil prospecting on the increase, he is now concerned that this crucial behaviour is coming under threat.

He said: "When only a few weeks old, baby reef fish face a monumental challenge in locating and choosing suitable habitat. Reef noise gives them vital information, but if they can learn, remember and become attracted towards the wrong sounds, we might be leading them in all the wrong directions."

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Dr Simpson said: "Anthropogenic noise has increased dramatically in recent years, with small boats, shipping, drilling, pile driving and seismic testing now sometimes drowning out the natural sounds of fish and snapping shrimps. If fish accidentally learn to follow the wrong sounds, they could end up stuck next to a construction site or follow a ship back out to sea."

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Go ahead and argue, it can be good for your health

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38698442/ns/health-behavior/

By Rachael Rettner
updated 8/13/2010 6:28:16 PM ET

SAN DIEGO — A little arguing now and then is good for you, if done for the right reasons, a new study suggests.

The results show when people experience tension with someone, whether their boss, spouse, or child, sidestepping confrontation could be bad for their health. Avoiding conflict was associated with more symptoms of physical problems the next day than was actually engaging in an argument.

Bypassing bickering was also associated with abnormal rises and falls of the stress hormone cortisol throughout the day.

"Relationships have important influences on how we feel on a daily basis, especially the problems in our relationships," said study researcher Kira Birditt, of the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. "How we deal with problems affects our daily well-being," she said.

Previous research has shown married couples who avoid argumentsare more likely to die earlier than their expressive counterparts. Another study found that expressing angercontributes to a sense of control and optimism that doesn't exist in people who respond in a fearful manner.

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This study compared people who avoided expressing disagreements vs. those who argued about them.
What about people who talk them out in a respectful way?

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Trend continues with second hottest July on record

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100813/ap_on_sc/us_sci_hot_july;_ylt=At3R6fu51Nj5guvOJRCbw0is0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlMjJmYWF1BHBvcwM4MwRzZWMDYWNjb3JkaW9uX3BvbGl0aWNzBHNsawN0cmVuZGNvbnRpbnU-

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer Randolph E. Schmid, Ap Science Writer – Fri Aug 13, 7:33 pm ET

WASHINGTON – The Earth continues to feel the heat.

Last month was the second warmest July on record, and so far 2010 remains on track to be the hottest year.

Worldwide, the average temperature in July was 61.6 degrees Fahrenheit (16.5 Celsius), the National Climatic Data Center reported Friday. Only July 1998 was hotter since recordkeeping began more than a century ago.

And the January-July period was the warmest first seven months of any year on record, averaging 58.1 F (14.5 C). In second place was January-July of 1998.

The report comes after a month of worldwide extremes including floods, fires, melting ice and feverish heat. Atmospheric scientists have grown increasingly concerned about human-induced global warming in recent years, though political pressures and fierce arguments about climate change have slowed efforts to develop solutions.

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For the United States the center noted that "intense heat either tied, or shattered, July monthly temperature records in several East Coast cities, including Washington, Atlantic City, N.J. and Hartford, Conn."

It was the hottest July on record for Delaware and Rhode Island and every East Coast state from Maine to Florida ranked in its top ten warmest.

Only Montana, Idaho, and Texas had average temperatures that were below-normal for the month.

Rainfall, averaged across the country, was much-above-normal in July, ranking in the 10 ten percent in the 1895-2010 period.

Much of the Plains and Upper Midwest experienced above normal wetness, the climate center noted. "Wisconsin had its second wettest July, while Texas had its fourth, Iowa its fifth and Missouri its eighth" wettest.


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Students' Understanding of the Equal Sign Not Equal

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100810122200.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 11, 2010) — Taken very literally, not all students are created equal -- especially in their math learning skills, say Texas A&M University researchers who have found that not fully understanding the "equal sign" in a math problem could be a key to why U.S. students underperform their peers from other countries in math.

"About 70 percent of middle grades students in the United States exhibit misconceptions, but nearly none of the international students in Korea and China have a misunderstanding about the equal sign, and Turkish students exhibited far less incidence of the misconception than the U.S. students," note Robert M. Capraro and Mary Capraro of the Department of Teaching, Learning, and Culture at Texas A&M.

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Students who exhibit the correct understanding of the equal sign show the greatest achievement in mathematics and persist in fields that require mathematics proficiency like engineering, according to their research.

"The equal sign is pervasive and fundamentally linked to mathematics from kindergarten through upper-level calculus," Robert M. Capraro says. "The idea of symbols that convey relative meaning, such as the equal sign and "less than" and "greater than" signs, is complex and they serve as a precursor to ideas of variables, which also require the same level of abstract thinking."

The problem is students memorize procedures without fully understanding the mathematics, he notes.

"Students who have learned to memorize symbols and who have a limited understanding of the equal sign will tend to solve problems such as 4+3+2=( )+2 by adding the numbers on the left, and placing it in the parentheses, then add those terms and create another equal sign with the new answer," he explains. "So the work would look like 4+3+2=(9)+2=11.

"This response has been called a running equal sign -- similar to how a calculator might work when the numbers and equal sign are entered as they appear in the sentence," he explains. "However, this understanding is incorrect. The correct solution makes both sides equal. So the understanding should be 4+3+2=(7)+2. Now both sides of the equal sign equal 9."

One cause of the problem might be the textbooks, the research shows.

The Texas A&M researchers examined textbooks in China and the United States and found "Chinese textbooks provided the best examples for students and that even the best U.S. textbooks, those sponsored by the National Science Foundation, were lacking relational examples about the equal sign."

Parents and teachers can help the students. The two researchers suggest using mathematics manipulatives and encourage teachers "to read professional journals, become informed about the problem and modify their instruction."

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Pakistan floods: How you can help

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38680246/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/38683476

updated 8/12/2010 6:07:14 PM ET

Hundreds of people have died, 2 million have been displaced and 14 million lives have been disrupted by exceptionally heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan since July. The U.N. says that even more lives could be lost if aid doesn't arrive soon.

Here's how you can help:

Donate, donate, donate (cash)
The U.S. government and most major relief organizations say that one of the very best ways to help is through cash. Cash donations are easily transferred overseas, don't consume manpower and warehouse space, and can be used by volunteers for the most pressing issues at hand.

For general donations, text "SWAT" to 50555 to donate $10 to help flood victims ( UN refugee agency and mGive)

For specific aid initiatives, you can look at various organizations that are involved in Pakistan flood relief efforts at InterAction

A few highlights from that list include (and are definitely not limited to):
CARE (Cooperative for American Remittances to Europe)
USA for UNHCR (USA for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees)
UNICEF (U.N. Children's Fund)

Volunteer/non-monetary contributions
If you have specific skills (medicine, engineering, communications, etc.) and want to volunteer your time and energy, go to Center for International Disaster Information.

What is the U.S. government doing?
Go to USAID (United States Agency for International Development) to find out.

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Please go to the original article for links to these organizations
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Fun With Mortality Tables

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/13/fun-with-mortality-tables/

August 13, 2010, 5:50 pm

Hoo boy, if Social Security is the big thing in the next few months — which is starting to look possible — it’s going to be like old times again, shooting down all the usual fallacies one more time.

So: one thing you’re going to hear is something along the lines of, “In 1950 life expectancy was only 68 years, so hardly anyone was collecting Social Security; now it’s 78 years — the problem is obvious”.

Does anyone know what’s wrong with this? You over there in the corner?

That’s right: a life expectancy of 68 years doesn’t mean that a lot of people toddle along then suddenly keel over over after threescore and eight birthdays. Mostly it meant much higher child mortality than we have now, which has no relevance one way or the other to Social Security.

Much more to the point is the number of years people could expect to live after reaching 65: 14 years in 1950, 18.5 years now. Not so impressive a change, is it? And the retirement age is already 66 for my cohort, and scheduled to rise to 67 on current law.

Oh, and by the way, rising life expectancy was built into Social Security planning from the beginning. The big surprise has, if anything, been stagnating life expectancy among less affluent Americans.

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Paul Krugman has a series of posts about facts about Social Security.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/


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Hero dog seeks help after owner collapses

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38630839/ns/health-pet_health/

updated 8/9/2010 5:11:10 PM ET

YAMHILL, Ore. — A small dog who refused to return home until a neighbor followed her helped rescue her owner after he collapsed at home following heart surgery. Charles Mitchell said he was working in his yard last week in the Oregon wine country town of Yamhill when an 11-year-old dachshund named Missy scampered up and refused to leave.

Mitchell told the dog to go home, but she refused, and when he decided to follow her across the street to investigate, he found his neighbor, Charlie Burdon, had collapsed inside his home.

The police chief arrived with paramedics, Burdon was taken to the hospital. Burdon suffered an attack of vertigo and is recovering.

But Burdon and Mitchell, who have known each other for years, both said Missy is their hero.

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Pets vital to human evolution

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38639193/ns/technology_and_science-science/

By Larry O'Hanlon
updated 8/10/2010 10:14:15 AM ET

Dogs, cats, cows and other domesticated animals played a key role in human evolution, according to a theory being published by paleoanthropologist Pat Shipman of Penn State University.

The uniquely human habit of taking in and employing animals — even competitors like wolves —spurred on human tool-making and language, which have both driven humanity's success, Shipman says.

"Wherever you go in the world, whatever ecosystem, whatever culture, people live with animals," Shipman told Discovery News.

For early humans, taking in and caring for animals would seem like a poor strategy for survival. "On the face of it, you are wasting your resources. So this is a very weird behavior," Shipman said.

But it's not so weird in the context something else humans were doing about 2.6 million years ago: switching from a mostly vegetarian diet to one rich in meat. This happened because humans invented stone hunting tools that enabled them to compete with other top predators. Quite a rapid and bizarre switch for any animal, Shipman said.

"We shortcut the evolutionary process," said Shipman, who published her ideas in the latest issue of Current Anthropology and in an upcoming book. "We don't have the equipment to be carnivores."

So we invented the equipment, learned how to track and kill, and eventually took in animals who also knew how to hunt — like wolves and other canines. Others, like goats, cows and horses, provided milk, hair and, finally, hides and meat.

Managing all of these animals — or just tracking them — requires technology, knowledge and ways to preserves and convey information. So languages had to develop and evolve to meet the challenges.

Tracking game has even been argued to be the origin of scientific inquiry, said Peter Richerson, professor emeritus in the Department of Environmental Science and Policy at the University of California, Davis.

One of the signs that this happened is in petroglyphs and other rock art left by ancient peoples. At first they were abstract, geometric patterns that are impossible to decipher. Then they converge on one subject: animals.

"Think what isn't there: people, landscapes, fruit and edible plants," said Shipman. This implies that animals and information about animals was of great importance.

There have also been genetic changes in both humans and our animals, Shipman argues.

For the animals those changes developed because human bred them for specific traits, like a cow that gives more milk or a hen that lays more eggs.

But this evolutionary influence works both ways. Dogs, for instance, might have have been selectively taken in by humans who shared genes for more compassion. Those humans then prospered —a.k.a. reproduced — with the dogs' help in hunting and securing their homes.



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Girl, 16, dies in Iowa flooding as others evacuate

There have been a string of extreme rain and snow falls this year. This was predicted decades ago by climate scientists, due to global warming. Of course, we cannot know that a specific event was due to GW, but we know that it is contributing. Warm air can hold more moisture. When it meets cooler air, there will be increased precipitation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38656393/ns/weather/

A 16-year-old girl died Wednesday when raging floodwaters swept three cars off a road near Des Moines, and hundreds had to evacuate their homes as widespread flooding struck Iowa after three nights of rain.

In Ames, flooding contributed to a water main break that forced the city to shut off water to its roughly 55,000 residents and left Iowa State University's basketball arena under 4 to 5 feet of water.

Rivers and creeks rose after storms dumped 2 to 4 inches of rain on central and eastern Iowa over night Wednesday, with 6 inches in some spots, the National Weather Service said. A snowy winter and wet spring and summer "set the stage" for the flooding, but the recent storms were the big problem, weather service meteorologist Jim Lee said.

"The bulk of this has been caused by those recent extreme rainfalls, especially back-to-back-to-back," he said.

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Planets Align for the Perseid Meteor Shower

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/05aug_perseids/

August 5, 2010: You know it's a good night when a beautiful alignment of planets is the second best thing that's going to happen.

Thursday, August 12th, is such a night.

The show begins at sundown when Venus, Saturn, Mars and the crescent Moon pop out of the western twilight in tight conjunction. All four heavenly objects will fit within a circle about 10 degrees in diameter, beaming together through the dusky colors of sunset. No telescope is required to enjoy this naked-eye event.

The planets will hang together in the western sky until 10 pm or so. When they leave, following the sun below the horizon, you should stay, because that is when the Perseid meteor shower begins. From 10 pm until dawn, meteors will flit across the starry sky in a display that's even more exciting than a planetary get-together.

The Perseid meteor shower is caused by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle. Every 133 years the huge comet swings through the inner solar system and leaves behind a trail of dust and gravel. When Earth passes through the debris, specks of comet-stuff hit the atmosphere at 140,000 mph and disintegrate in flashes of light. These meteors are called Perseids because they fly out of the constellation Perseus.

Swift-Tuttle's debris zone is so wide, Earth spends weeks inside it. Indeed, we are in the outskirts now, and sky watchers are already reporting a trickle of late-night Perseids. The trickle could turn into a torrent between August 11th and 13th when Earth passes through the heart of the debris trail.

2010 is a good year for Perseids because the Moon won't be up during the midnight-to-dawn hours of greatest activity. Lunar glare can wipe out a good meteor shower, but that won't be the case this time.

As Perseus rises and the night deepens, meteor rates will increase. For sheer numbers, the best time to look is during the darkest hours before dawn on Friday morning, Aug. 13th, when most observers will see dozens of Perseids per hour.

For best results, get away from city lights. The darkness of the countryside multiplies the visible meteor rate 3- to 10-fold. A good dark sky will even improve the planetary alignment, allowing faint Mars and Saturn to make their full contribution to the display. Many families plan camping trips to coincide with the Perseids. The Milky Way arching over a mountain campground provides the perfect backdrop for a meteor shower.

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Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1574

A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

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Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more

I consider those who are deliberately trying to mislead the public to think that global warming is not a problem, for the sake of higher short-term profits, are evil psychopathic mass murderers. They, including Exxon/Mobil, make BP look good.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1571

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 brought temperatures of 37°C (99°F) to Moscow today, and smog and smoke from wildfires blanketed the city for a sixth straight day. Air pollution levels were 2 - 3 times the maximum safe level today, and peaked on Saturday, when when carbon monoxide hit 6.5 times the safe level. The death toll from heat and air pollution increased to approximately 330 people per day in Moscow in recent days, according to the head of the Moscow health department. Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, said excess deaths in Moscow in July averaged 155 per day, compared to 2009. The heat wave began on June 27. These grim statistics suggest that in Moscow alone, the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 has likely killed at least 7,000 people so far. A plot of the departure of July 2010 temperatures from average (Figure 1) shows that the area of Russia experiencing incredible heat is vast, and that regions southeast of Moscow have the hottest, relative to average. Moscow is the largest city in Russia, with a population just over ten million, but there are several other major cities in the heat wave region. These include Saint Petersburg, Russia's 2nd most populous city (4.6 million), and Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's 5th most populous city (1.3 million people.) Thus, the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 - 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy. While the temperatures in that heat wave were not as extreme as the Russian heat wave, the nighttime low temperatures in the 2003 heat wave were considerably higher. This tends to add to heat stress and causes a higher death toll. I expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, it may rival the 2003 European heat wave as the deadliest heat wave in world history.

Worst Russian heat wave in 1,000 years of history
The temperature at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport hit 99°F (37°C) today. Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia's weather service, said in a statement today, "Our ancestors haven't observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique." There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91 °F) Wednesday though Sunday.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history for the second day in a row
The Russian heat wave has also affected the neighboring nations of Ukraine and Belarus. All three nations have recorded their hottest temperatures in history over the past few weeks. Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946. As I described in detail in Saturday's post, Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

July SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest July on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during July, beating the previous record of 1.19°C set in July 2005. July 2010 was the sixth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and had the third warmest anomaly of any month in history. The five warmest months in history for the tropical Atlantic have all occurred this year. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role.

The magnitude of the anomaly has increased slightly since June, because trade winds over the tropical Atlantic were at below-normal speeds during July. These lower trade wind speeds were due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High had below-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at below-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to stay at record warm levels during the remainder of August, and probably during September as well. This should significantly increase the odds of getting major hurricanes in the Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.



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Brainless slime mould makes decisions like humans

I'm sure you can come up with your own snide remarks about human intelligence.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2010/08/10/brainless-slime-mould-makes-decisions-like-humans/

A couple arrive at a fancy restaurant and they’re offered the wine list. This establishment only has two bottles on offer, one costing £5 and the other costing £25. The second bottle seems too expensive and the diners select the cheaper one. The next week, they return. Now, there’s a third bottle on the list but it’s a vintage, priced at a staggering £1,000. Suddenly, the £25 bottle doesn’t seem all that expensive, and this time, the diners choose it instead.

Businesses use this tactic all the time – an extremely expensive option is used to make mid-range ones suddenly seem like attractive buys. The strategy only works because humans like to compare our options, rather than paying attention to their absolute values. In the wine example, the existence of the third bottle shouldn’t matter – the £25 option costs the same amount either way, but in one scenario it looks like a rip-off and in another, it looks like a steal. The simple fact is that to us, a thing’s value depends on the things around it. Economists often refer to this as “irrational”.

But if that’s the case, we’re not alone in our folly. Other animals, from birds to bees, make choices in the same way. Now, Tanya Latty and Madeleine Beekman from the University of Sydney, have found the same style of decision-making in a creature that’s completely unlike any of these animals – the slime mould, Physarum polycephalum. It’s a single-celled, amoeba-like creature that doesn’t have a brain.

Physarum spends most of its life as a large mat called a ‘plasmodium’, which is a single cell that contains many nuclei. The plasmodium searches for food by moving along like an amoeba and sending out a network of tendrils. Its search patterns are very sophisticated for a brainless organism. A Japanese group found that if they placed the mould among food sources arranged like Tokyo’s urban centres, it created a network that closely resembled Tokyo’s actual railway system. The slimy network was optimised to transport nutrients to the main plasmodium.

Scientists have long since discovered that you can run simple decision-making experiments with Physarum by presenting it with several food sources and seeing how it behaves. Typically, the plasmodium touches all the potential meals and then either ‘decides’ to move towards one, or splits itself among many.

Latty and Beekman did one such test using two food sources – one containing 3% oatmeal and covered in darkness (known as 3D), and another with 5% oatmeal that was brightly lit (5L). Bright light easily damages Physarum, so it had to choose between a heftier but more irritating food source, and a smaller but more pleasant one. With no clear winner, it’s not surprising that the slime mould had no preference – it oozed towards each option just as often as the other.

But things changed when Latty and Beekman added a third option into the mix – a food source containing 1% oatmeal and shrouded in shadow (1D). This third alternative is clearly the inferior one, and Physarum had little time for it. However, its presence changed the mould’s attitude toward the previous two options. Now, 80% of the plasmodia headed towards the 3D source, while around 20% chose the brightly-lit 5L one.

These results strongly suggest that, like humans, Physarum doesn’t attach any intrinsic value to the options that are available to it. Instead, it compares its alternatives. Add something new into the mix, and its decisions change. The presence of the 1D option made the 3D one more attractive by comparison, even though the 3D and 5L alternatives were fundamentally unchanged.

This style of ‘comparative valuation’ may seem uncannily human, but it’s also one that’s shared by hummingbirds, starlings, honeybees and many other animals. In fact, Latty and Beekman think that it’s a “common feature of biological decision-making”. Certainly, it’s a much easier process – comparing two nearby options is less “computationally intensive” than making absolute judgments about each of them.

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As Crops Wither in Russia's Severe Drought, Vital Plant Field Bank Faces Demolition

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100808212810.htm

ScienceDaily (Aug. 9, 2010) — As the fate of Europe's largest collection of fruit and berries hangs in the balance of a Russian court decision, the Global Crop Diversity Trust issued an urgent appeal for the Russian government to embrace its heroic tradition as protector of the world's crop diversity and halt the planned destruction of an incredibly valuable crop collection near St. Petersburg.

Pavlovsk Experiment Station is the largest European field genebank for fruits and berries, and is part of the N.I. Vavilov Research Institute of Plant Industry, where Russian scientists famously starved to death rather than eat the seeds under their protection during the 900-day siege of Leningrad during World War II.

At issue is an effort by residential real estate developers to build houses on land occupied by Pavlovsk Station. The take-over would involve bulldozing Pavlovsk's field collections amassed over the last century -- collections that contain thousands of varieties of apples, strawberries, cherries, raspberries, currants and other crops -- 90 percent of which are not found anywhere else in the world.

"It is a bitter irony that the single most deliberately destructive act against crop diversity, at least in my lifetime, could be about to happen in Russia of all places -- the country that invented the modern seed bank," said Cary Fowler of the Global Crop Diversity Trust, which aims to ensure the conservation and availability of crop diversity for food security worldwide and supports the operations of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in the Arctic Circle.


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GOP To Introduce Lame-Duck Prohibition Resolution

The extreme hypocrisy of Republicans is good for a laugh, even though repulsive. If the show were on the other foot, they would be outraged.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/09/gop-to-introduce-lame-duc_n_675630.html

First Posted: 08- 9-10 12:35 PM | Updated: 08- 9-10 02:47 PM

House Republicans are going forward with plans to introduce a resolution on Tuesday to prohibit the House of Representatives from assembling during the two-month period following the November elections.

A GOP leadership aide confirmed to the Huffington Post that the resolution, authored by Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) for the purposes of preventing Democrats from passing legislative items during the lame-duck session, would be introduced before the House passes additional Medicaid and teacher funding. The aide argued that comments on Sunday by Carol Browner, the White House's top energy and environmental adviser, suggesting that energy legislation could be considered during the so-called lame duck period, proved that the resolution was pertinent.


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