Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Future volcanic eruptions could cause more climate disruption

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/ncfa-fve102617.php

Public Release: 31-Oct-2017
Future volcanic eruptions could cause more climate disruption
Climate change reduces oceans' ability to buffer impacts
National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Major volcanic eruptions in the future have the potential to affect global temperatures and precipitation more dramatically than in the past because of climate change, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The study authors focused on the cataclysmic eruption of Indonesia's Mount Tambora in April 1815, which is thought to have triggered the so-called "year without a summer" in 1816. They found that if a similar eruption occurred in the year 2085, temperatures would plunge more deeply, although not enough to offset the future warming associated with climate change. The increased cooling after a future eruption would also disrupt the water cycle more severely, decreasing the amount of precipitation that falls globally.

The reason for the difference in climate response between 1815 and 2085 is tied to the oceans, which are expected to become more stratified as the planet warms, and therefore less able to moderate the climate impacts caused by volcanic eruptions.

"We discovered that the oceans play a very large role in moderating, while also lengthening, the surface cooling induced by the 1815 eruption," said NCAR scientist John Fasullo, lead author of the new study. "The volcanic kick is just that -- it's a cooling kick that lasts for a year or so. But the oceans change the timescale. They act to not only dampen the initial cooling but also to spread it out over several years."

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