Friday, October 24, 2014

Low Turnout Might Damage the Dems Says New Poll

By Rob Garver, The Fiscal Times
October 15, 2014

Every election has its idiosyncrasies and complicating outside factors, but sometimes the results come down to the same factors cycle after cycle. Right now, it looks more likely than not that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in November. The biggest reason is that, as a party, the Democrats don’t get voters to the polls for the midterms as well as the GOP does.

A new poll from The Wall Street Journal and NBC News shows that a plurality of voters, by a margin of 46 percent to 42 percent, would prefer to see Democrats in control of Congress. But when the sample is limited to those considered “likely voters,” the numbers flip – with Republicans preferred by a plurality of 46 percent to 42 percent.


Yet there are factors that make it less clear just how sure the GOP’s path to victory is. When voters were given only a choice between the Republicans and Democrats for control of Congress, Democrats won among registered voters but lost among likely voters. However, when voters were asked what party they prefer in their own congressional district, including the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, Democrats topped Republicans not only among registered voters (43-36) but among likely voters as well (41-39).


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