Friday, July 02, 2010

Weather Forecasting

According to the global warming denialists, we shouldn't worry about it because scientists can't predict the outcome with 100% accuracy. According to that "logic", people should take precautions when a hurricane is headed their way, because scientists can't predict the path of the hurricane with 100% accuracy.

But I've also noted the same people will severely criticize those who don't take precautions when a hurricane or wildfire is predicted for their area.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1532

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I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.

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