So when you see that the temperature is above average by a certain amount, remember that it is above the average by more than that over the last 30 years, and even more since the industrial revolution.
Chris Dolce
Published: January 4, 2021
Climate averages for temperature and precipitation where you live could change soon and will be influenced by global temperature rise.
Technically, the changes will come as a part of a once-a-decade update by NOAA, which manages such records.
Climate normals are more commonly known as your average temperature and precipitation for any given period of time. They are based on a 30-year period, with 1981-2010 being the most recent dataset in use for comparison.
These so-called 'normals' help put the actual temperature or precipitation into historical context relative to what you would expect in a given time.
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Later this spring, NOAA will update normals like these for the United States to include the most recent three-decade average: 1991-2020. For many locations, that means there will be an overall increase in the average temperature because of global temperature rise, but there are some caveats.
"Observational evidence shows that the last 20 years have been the warmest such period on record across the U.S. Therefore, we anticipate that the new normals will generally be warmer on average for most stations, but not uniformly warmer for all stations and all seasons. In fact, some station normals in certain locations and seasons may become cooler," NOAA says.
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There are some localized exceptions, such as the cooling trend depicted in the north-central United States and south-central Canada. Brettschneider noted cities like Grand Forks, North Dakota, and Rapid City, South Dakota, are estimated to be "very slightly cooler in the 1991-2020 period".
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