Ocean temps predict US heat waves 50 days out, study finds

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/ncfa-otp032816.php

Public Release: 28-Mar-2016
Ocean temps predict US heat waves 50 days out, study finds
Pacific pattern often forms in advance of hot days in eastern US
National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern half of the United States up to 50 days in advance, according to a new study led by a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week--or even on a particular day--can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is.

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"Summertime heat waves are among the deadliest weather events, and they can have big impacts on farming, energy use, and other critical aspects of society," said Karen McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at NCAR and the lead author of the study. "If we can give city planners and farmers a heads up that extreme heat is on the way, we might be able to avoid some of the worst consequences."

The research was largely funded by the National Science Foundation

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Scientists do not yet know why the fingerprint on sea surface temperatures in the Pacific predicts heat in the eastern U.S. It could be that the sea surface temperatures themselves kick off weather patterns that cause the heat. Or it could be that they are both different results of the same phenomenon, but one does not cause the other.

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