Monday, April 11, 2016

Hillary is winning the primary popular vote 60% to 40%

So far, Clinton has won the popular vote. The media has obscured that by almost always giving totals by delegates, and talking about super delagates. It's hard to find a source that gives the total Democratic popular vote. This allows those working against Clinton, whether Republican operatives or Sanders supporters, to cloud the waters. When I looked a few days ago, the best I could find was popular votes for each state. I'm glad DailyKos gave us the totals.

Mar. 10, 2016

Let me repeat that to let it sink in. Hillary is winning the popular vote in the primaries 60% to 40%.

There has been a lot of discussion about how the heavy Southern tilt in the early primaries has favored Clinton. The entire region has voted like it was her home state. However, before Sanders supporters dismiss delegates from Southern states as irrelevant due to the general election, they should take a look at the popular vote totals nationwide, which the pledged delegate count reflects. While it is true the numbers below do not include Iowa and Nevada where she won, or Maine where she lost, since the totals weren’t released, Hillary would still be about 1.6 million votes ahead. Given that Clinton is leading in pledged delegates 772 to 549 or 58% to 42% this should not be a surprise.

As shown above, it is likely Clinton will continue to grow her popular vote advantage and pledged delegate advantage on March 15th, and beyond, even if her percentage of the total decreases. Even when Sanders wins in the North, it’s only by narrow margins, so it doesn’t cut into her popular vote lead. Since Bernie can only run up bigger margins in smaller, rural, mostly white states, Hillary is likely to increase her lead in the popular vote even more. Sanders diehards might ask themselves, is a candidate winning by 1.6 million votes still a fraud? Do you want a nominee who loses by 2 million votes?


No comments:

Post a Comment