Effectively using the advice of experts

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-10/uom-eut101415.php

Public Release: 14-Oct-2015
Effectively using the advice of experts
University of Melbourne

In an article published in the journal Nature, Professor Burgman and Professor William Sutherland from the University of Cambridge argue expert opinions are often considered infallible.

But expert advice or estimates are often compromised by "cognitive frailties", which include the expert's mood, values, whether they stand to gain or lose from a decision and the context in which their opinions are sought.

"Experts are typically unaware of these subjective influences," the article says.

"They are often highly credible, yet they vastly overestimate their own objectivity and the reliability of their peers."

It was vital that the conventional approach of informing policy through expert advice - either individuals or panels - be balanced with methods that alleviate any psychological and motivational bias.

Professor Burgman, the director of the Centre of Excellent for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) in the School of BioSciences at the University of Melbourne, says history shows experts often get it wrong.

Australians were once told that cane toads were not a threat to the local environment, while much of the world came the conclusion in 2003 that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

"Experts must be tested, their biases minimised, their accuracy improved and their estimates validated with independent evidence," the authors write.

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Professors Burgman and Sutherland have created a framework of eight key ways to improve the advice of experts. These include using groups - not individuals - with diverse, carefully selected members well within their expertise areas.

They also caution against being bullied or starstruck by the over-assertive or heavyweight.

"Some experts are much better than others at estimation and prediction.

"However, the only way to tell a good expert from a poor one is to test them.

"Qualifications and experience don't help to tell them apart."

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Eight ways to improve expert advice

Use groups
Their estimates consistently outperform those of individuals'

Choose members carefully
Expertise declines dramatically outside an individual's specialisation

Don't be starstruck
A person's age, number of publications or reputation is not a measure of an expert's ability to estimate or predict events

Avoid homogeneity
Diverse groups tend to generate more accurate judgements

Don't be bullied
Less-assured and assertive people tend to make better judgements

Weight opinions
Calibrate an expert's performance with test questions

Train experts
Training can improve an expert's ability

Give feedback
Rapid feedback tends to improve expert judgements

tags: influence