European heat waves boosted by climate change, scientists say

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/european-heat-waves-boosted-by-climate-change-scientists-say-1.3137452

Thomson Reuters Posted: Jul 03, 2015

As Germany and Spain sweated and London sweltered through its hottest July day on record this week, scientists said it is "virtually certain" that climate change is increasing the likelihood of such heat waves in Europe.

In real-time data analysis released on Friday, a team of international climate scientists from universities, meteorological services and research organizations said the kind of heat waves hitting Europe this week - defined as three-day periods of excessive heat - are becoming much more frequent in the region.

In De Bilt in the Netherlands, for example, a heat wave like the one forecast for the next few days would have been a roughly one-in-30-years event in the 1900s, according to the scientists. It is now likely to happen every three-and-a-half years, they said.

In Mannheim, Germany, a heat wave like that of the last few days would have been a once-in-a-century event in the 1900s, but is now likely to happen about every 15 years, they said.

London also saw its hottest recorded July day on Wednesday, with temperatures at Heathrow Airport hitting 36.7 C (98.1F), the scientists noted.

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The Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics has predicted that on average 200 more people will die in that country each week during a heat wave, a 10 per cent rise in deaths.

Deaths among the isolated elderly are a particular problem, and accounted for a big share of the estimated 70,000 additional people who died in France and other European nations during a 2003 heat wave.

At that time, "people were really caught unawares by the combination of rising risk and changing structure of society", van Aalst said.

Traditionally, extended families have looked after the elderly in places like France, he said. But social changes now mean many more older people live alone in cities, with no one to ensure they do basic things like drink enough water in the heat.

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