Normal economic fluctuations

Anybody who pays attention to the news should know that week-to-week fluctuations in economic measures are normal. What is important is long term trends.

Seasonal adjustments are made to make the statistics more meaningful, but even if weather patterns weren't changing and becoming more extreme, there are year-to-year variations that will affect such things as hiring. Eg., warmer weather in fall and winter will cause lesser demand for winter clothing.

If we had decent mathematical education in our country, more people would understand this.

http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/18/14533490-jobless-claims-take-big-jump-in-latest-week?lite

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits leapt to the highest level in four months in the latest week, erasing the large drop reported last week and then some.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims, a notoriously volatile data point that is subject to large swings due to technical factors, rose a seasonally-adjusted 46,000 to 388,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out wrinkles in the data, rose 750 to 365,500. Both data points remain below 400,000, suggesting that the labor market is healing, although at a snail's pace.

.....

Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week.

A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers "are being distorted ... by an issue of timing."

The government adjusts its readings for claims to take into account regular seasonal swings. Claims usually increase at the beginning of a quarter, but one state appears to be following a different pattern than normal in reporting its claims, which led to the wild fluctuations over the last couple of weeks, a department official said.