Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Median Duration of Unemployment

The Median is the point at which half of the unemployed are employed for less than that amount of time, half for a greater amount of time.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/12/median-duration-of-unemployment.html





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Drive for Social Security Cuts Based on Deception

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/drive-for-social-security-cuts-based-on-deception

Mark Weisbrot
The Sacramento Bee (CA), December 2, 2010
McClatchy-Tribune Information Services, December 2, 2010

According to a recent CNN poll, 60 percent of Americans under 60 and 70 percent of those under 50 believed that Social Security will not be able to pay them a benefit when they retire.

In reality, the likelihood that any living American’s Social Security benefits will not be paid to them when they retire is about the same as the probability that there will be no U.S. government at that time. Is anybody banking on that?

Of course if you are going to take something away from people, the first step is to convince them that it wasn’t really there in the first place. What makes the whole deception even more fascinating is that everyone is using the same assumptions about the future and the same numbers.

The common source for everyone writing and talking about Social Security is the annual Social Security Trustees Report. This shows that the program can pay all promised benefits for the next 27 years, without any changes at all. If nothing is done over the next 27 years, only about 75 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable in 2037; but that would still be more than what retirees receive today, after adjusting for inflation.

So, according to the assumptions and facts that everyone who writes or talks about Social Security is using, there is no basis for the belief that the majority of Americans under 60 hold. Since this deception is not about Afghanistan or some country on the other side of the world, but about a program that nearly a quarter of American adults receive a check from each month, it is all the more amazing. The enemies of Social Security have pulled off one of the greatest public relations scams in U.S. history.

What makes this subterfuge unique is that it is all based on verbal and accounting trickery. For example, it is common to combine Social Security and Medicare spending and say that their costs will become unsustainable. The trick here is that it is Medicare, not Social Security that leads to the explosion in public spending. And perhaps more importantly: it is not the aging population or Medicare itself that is the problem, but the United States’ private sector health care costs. If these were in line with any other high-income country such as Germany or Canada, our long-term budget deficit would turn into a surplus.

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As Climate Talks Plod Along, The World Burns

Propagandists for the oil and coal industry are arguing that we can't keep global warming from happening to a certain extent, so we might as well not try at all. This makes as much sense as saying that since diabetics who are careful in treating their disease still suffer some ill effects, although they greatly reduce the damage, they shouldn't even bother. Or saying that since we cannot avoid exposure to a certain level of arsenic, we should drink it by the cupful.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/12/05/cancun-climate-talks/

By Brad Johnson on Dec 5th, 2010 at 3:30 pm

As the world’s environmental ministers arrive in Cancun, Mexico, for the 19th year of negotiations to address global warming pollution, new climate disasters are killing people across the planet. The slow-moving climate talks are hobbled by insufficient ambition, and uncertainty over whether the United States or China — the world’s largest climate polluters — will follow through with their Copenhagen Accord commitments. The Obama administration’s stated commitment to cut pollution by 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels, after Republican climate deniers killed cap-and-trade legislation, now depends on whether the Environmental Protection Agency’s planned greenhouse standards survive a polluter onslaught.

Meanwhile, the building heat trapped by billions of tons of fossil fuel pollution is fueling catastrophic changes in the world’s climate system “here and now“:

– The worst wildfires in Israel’s history, fueled by record warmth and drought, “have destroyed large sections of Israel’s northern area” and killed 41 people. Four days of intense fire fighting during the celebration of Hanukkah, with assistance from Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Russia, France, Britain, Switzerland, Spain, US, Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, Azerbaijan and others, have finally begun to bring the devastation under control.

– Forty-two separate wildfires are burning in neighboring Lebanon, which has the same tinderbox conditions.

– Dynamic winter-storm systems driven by the rapidly warming Arctic have plunged much of Europe into killer cold weather for the second year in a row, months after a summer of record heat and precipitation. Up to 30 people have frozen to death in Poland, and thirty more were killed in the rest of Europe.

– Floods have hit Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia after “three weeks of torrential rains,” forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

– Thousands of people have been evacuated amid catastrophic floods in Australia that have already destroyed $500 million in crops, with rivers still rising.

– Thunderstorms, high winds and tornadoes ripped through the southern United States, injuring at least 30 people, destroying buildings, toppling trees, flooding highways and forcing schools to close.

– New Zealand is facing an intense heatwave and its third consecutive summer of drought.

Speaking at the funeral of a teenage volunteer firefighter, Israeli President Shimon Peres said the wildfire “disaster taught us that all of us, Jews, Arabs, Druze, and other peoples, share the same fate.” If the climate negotiators in Cancun can find the same sense of solidarity in crisis shown in their home countries, there could be reason for hope.

Brad Johnson is reporting and tweeting live from the international climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.
Update Also:

-- "The death toll from the incessant rains in Venezuela has risen to 34," with "more than 70,000 people who have been affected" by the catastrophic floods.

-- "As many as 200 people may have been buried in a landslide Sunday that swept over 10 houses near Medellin, Colombia's second largest city," as the country "has been lashed in recent weeks by heavy rains that have left at least 176 people dead and 225 injured, as well as 1.5 million people homeless nationwide."

-- In India, "more than 150 people have died following heavy rains in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu over the past few days."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1706

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:07 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Colombia's heaviest rains in history triggered a landslide in the poor hillside community of Bello on Sunday, killing at least 20 people and leaving 125 missing. This year's unprecedented rainy season had already killed 176 people prior to Sunday, making it one of the deadliest flooding years in Colombia's history, according to the director of Colombia's national disaster management office, Luz Armanda Pulido. In 2009, 110 people died in flooding disasters, and 48 were killed in 2008, according to Colombian Red Cross director of national relief operations Carlos Ivan Marquez. This year's rains are the heaviest in the 42 years since Colombia's weather service was created and began taking data, agency director Ricardo Lozano said. The resulting flooding has destroyed or damaged the homes of 1.6 million people. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said the number of homeless from the flooding could reach 2 million, and said "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." Neighboring Venezuela has also been hard-hit by this year's severe rainy season--at least 30 people are dead from floods and mudslides, and tens of thousands homeless. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model (Figure 2)--calls for an additional 4 - 6 inches (100 - 150 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101205202514.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 5, 2010) — Climate change is causing wildfires to burn more fiercely, pumping more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than previously thought, according to a new study to be published in Nature Geoscience this week.

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"These findings are worrisome because about half the world's soil carbon is locked in northern permafrost and peatland soils. This is carbon that has accumulated in ecosystems a little bit at a time for thousands of years, but is being released very rapidly through increased burning."

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Pray Tell: Americans Stretching the Truth About Church Attendance

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201124353.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2010) — A new University of Michigan study finds that Americans are much more likely to exaggerate their attendance at religious services than are people in many other countries.

"Americans have long been viewed as exceptionally religious compared to other nations in the developed world," said Philip Brenner, a research fellow at the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR) and the author of the study. "But this study suggests that American religiosity may be exceptional not in terms of actual behavior, but rather in terms of identity.

"In the U.S., and to a lesser extent in Canada, the gap between what we say and what we do is substantial, and has been so for the last several decades."

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Monday, December 06, 2010

Imitating Someone's Accent Makes It Easier to Understand Them

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101206161826.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 6, 2010) — In conversation, we often imitate each other's speech style and may even change our accent to fit that of the person we're talking to. A recent study in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, suggests that imitating someone who speaks with a regional or foreign accent may actually help you understand them better.

"If people are talking to each other, they tend to sort of move their speech toward each other," says Patti Adank, of the University of Manchester, who co-wrote the study with Peter Hagoort and Harold Bekkering from Radboud University Nijmegen in the Netherlands.

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lose-lose move for Obama

This article expresses my own views on this issue, with better wording than I would probably come up with.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/12/06/zelizer.deficit.trap/index.html?hpt=T2

By Julian E. Zelizer, Special to CNN
December 6, 2010 7:48 a.m. EST

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Yet Obama should be extremely cautious before he shifts the focus of his agenda. Emphasizing deficits over unemployment threatens to carry huge political costs for Democrats. The latest unemployment numbers are a stark reminder of the terrible shape of the economy. Regardless of the conventional wisdom, moreover, the move won't leave him in a stronger political position. At a time when many economists believe that the time is not right to move toward deficit reduction, given that the economy is still fragile and unstable, Obama is heading into a political trap.

The major political problem for Obama is that making deficit reduction an immediate priority is unlikely to win over Republican support. The record since 2008 has been that even when Obama gives ground to the GOP on issues like health care and economic policy, Republicans have rarely offered their support in return. Rather, the GOP has demanded more from the president, while continuing to attack the administration as left-of-center.

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Federal taxes as a percentage of GDP at lowest point in 60 years

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/12/06/taxes_at_60_year_low.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

links to the following:

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/12/06/chart-of-the-day-u-s-taxes/

* Federal taxes are the lowest in 60 years, which gives you a pretty good idea of why America’s long-term debt ratios are a big problem. If the taxes reverted to somewhere near their historical mean, the problem would be solved at a stroke.
* Income taxes, in particular, both personal and corporate, are low and falling. That trend is not sustainable.
* Employment taxes, by contrast—the regressive bit of the fiscal structure—are bearing a large and increasing share of the brunt. Any time that somebody starts complaining about how the poor don’t pay income tax, point them to this chart. Income taxes are just one part of the pie, and everybody with a job pays employment taxes.
* There aren’t any wealth taxes, but the closest thing we’ve got—estate and gift taxes—have shrunk to zero, after contributing a non-negligible amount to the public fisc in earlier decades.

If you were structuring a tax code from scratch, it would look nothing like this. But the problem is that tax hikes seem to be politically impossible no matter which party is in power. And since any revamp of the tax code would involve tax hikes somewhere, I fear we’re fiscally doomed.

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What to Do If You Are Bitten by a Snake

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201142504.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2010) — Should you be the victim of a snakebite, the best thing you can do is get to a hospital as quickly as possible, according to a new review article from the Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (JAAOS). Current medical treatments, including new medications and surgery, if necessary, are far more effective for snakebites than anything you can do on your own.

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If you are bitten:

* Identify the type of snake if possible. If a smartphone or other camera is available, take a photo of the snake and bring it with you to the hospital.

* Get away from the snake.

* Do not attempt to suck out the venom.

* Do not apply a tourniquet unless you have a great deal of knowledge about snakes and the effects of snakebites. For some types of venom, a tourniquet can actually do more harm than good.

* Immobilize the affected body part.

* Remove all rings or restrictive jewelry on the affected limb, since snakebites often cause swelling.

* Get to a hospital or healthcare facility as quickly as you can. Do not wait and watch for symptoms.


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Loss of Species Large and Small Threatens Human Health

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201134156.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2010) — The loss of biodiversity -- from beneficial bacteria to charismatic mammals -- threatens human health. That's the conclusion of a study published this week in the journal Nature by scientists who study biodiversity and infectious diseases.

The work reveals a critical connection between conservation and disease. Species losses in ecosystems such as forests and fields result in increases in pathogens -- disease-causing organisms -- the researchers found.

The animals, plants, and microbes most likely to disappear as biodiversity is lost are often those that buffer infectious disease transmission. Those that remain tend to be species that magnify the transmission of infectious diseases like West Nile virus, Lyme disease, and hantavirus.

"We knew of specific cases in which declines in biodiversity increase the incidence of disease," says Felicia Keesing, an ecologist at Bard College in Annandale, N.Y., and first author of the paper. "But we've learned that the pattern is much more general: biodiversity loss tends to increase pathogen transmission across a wide range of infectious disease systems."

The pattern holds true for various types of pathogens -- viruses, bacteria, fungi -- and for many types of hosts, whether humans, other animals, or plants.

"When a clinical trial of a drug shows that it works," says Keesing, "the trial is halted so the drug can be made available. In a similar way, the protective effect of biodiversity is clear enough that we need to implement policies to preserve it now."

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For humans and other species to remain healthy, it will take more than a village -- we need an entire planet, the scientists say, one with its diversity thriving.

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Sunday, December 05, 2010

Smoking May Thin the Brain

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101202124205.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 2, 2010) — Many brain imaging studies have reported that tobacco smoking is associated with large-scale and wide-spread structural brain abnormalities.

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Tax Cuts for Limbaugh, Beck and Palin‏

from e-mail from Rep. Alan Grayson

We hear a lot of talk about the “Bush Tax Cuts.” And why not? According to Newsweek, George W. Bush “earns” $4.2 million from paid speeches, public appearances and miscellaneous punditry each year. Hence the Bush Tax Cuts cut Bush’s own taxes by an amazing $187,552 each year. And that’s not even counting how much the Bush tax cuts engorge Bush’s investment income.

So Bush cut his own taxes. No wonder Bush is in favor of extending those tax cuts.

He’s not the only one. Here is how much the Bush tax cuts benefit – each year – some other folks you may have heard of:

Rush Limbaugh - $2,689,135.
Glenn Beck - $1,512,352
Sean Hannity - $1,006,352
Bill O’Reilly - $914,352
Sarah Palin - $638,352
Newt Gingrich - $247,352

See it all laid out, at my speech right here.

Maybe we should call them the “Rush Limbaugh Tax Cuts.” Or the “Glenn Beck Tax Cuts.” Because the reason why these right-wing blowhards support tax cuts for the rich is that they support tax cuts for themselves.

Which will cost our country almost $100 billion a year. Enough to give $30,000-a-year jobs to 3 million Americans. To cut unemployment by two percent, immediately. And to get our economy moving again.


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Reaching 100 Years of Age May Be More About Attitude and Adaptation Than Health History

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201105338.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 2, 2010) — University of Georgia research has provided new clues on surviving to be 100 years old, finding that how we feel about ourselves and our ability to adapt to an accumulation of challenging life experiences may be as or more important than health factors.

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Study Suggests That Quitting Smoking Improves Mood

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101202124236.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 2, 2010) — Quitting smoking is certainly healthy for the body, but doctors and scientists haven't been sure whether quitting makes people happier, especially since conventional wisdom says many smokers use cigarettes to ease anxiety and depression. In a new study, researchers tracked the symptoms of depression in people who were trying to quit and found that they were never happier than when they were being successful, for however long that was.

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Saturday, December 04, 2010

Vitamins Might Promote Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Waters

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101203165534.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 3, 2010) — Harmful algal blooms, which negatively affect coastal ecosystems, public health, economies and fisheries around the world, may be promoted by vitamins B-1 and B-12 according to Stony Brook University scientists, whose findings were published in an early online edition (Nov. 10) and in the current issue (Nov. 30) of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS ).

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"Harmful algal blooms are not a new phenomenon, although many people may know them by other names such as red tides or brown tides," Dr. Gobler said. "These events can harm humans by causing poisoning from shellfish contaminated with algal toxins and can damage marine ecosystems by killing fish and other marine life. The distribution, frequency and intensity of these events have increased across the globe and scientists have been struggling to determine why this is happening."

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Heavy Smoking During Pregnancy Linked to Kids Becoming Repeat Offenders as Adults

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101115210939.htm

ScienceDaily (Nov. 15, 2010) — Mums who smoke heavily while pregnant run the risk of having kids who grow up to become repeat criminal offenders, suggests research published online in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

The findings held true, even after taking account of a comprehensive range of family and social factors, such as mental ill health and deprivation, which are likely to influence behaviours, the research showed.

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The findings showed that children whose mothers had smoked heavily during the pregnancy were the most likely to have a criminal record as an adult. They had a 30% increased chance of having been arrested, and this applied to women just as much as it did to men.

The children of women who smoked heavily during the pregnancy were also more likely to be repeat criminal offenders as adults.

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Would Jesus wear a Rolex?



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Unemployment benefits

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_12/026896.php

December 2, 2010

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In a conference call with reporters Thursday, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Austan Goolsbee and council member Cecilia Rouse urged Congress to extend unemployment insurance benefits for millions of Americans who are out of work, citing a new report that argues not doing so would have dire consequences for the U.S. economy.

The council's report, which details how a failure to extend the aid would affect people on a state-by-state level, says nearly seven million Americans could lose coverage by the end of next year and that 600,000 jobs are at stake. Goolsbee contended the gross domestic product would be six-tenths of a percent point lower in December of next year if the benefits are not extended, slowing the nation's recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

According to an earlier report by the National Employment Law Project, some two million workers nationally could lose benefits in December if they are not extended, an estimate the CEA also uses. The U.S. Joint Economic Committee estimates failure to extend the benefits program "would drain the economy of $80 billion in purchasing power and result in the loss of over one million jobs over the next year."

"The data is quite clear from many outside sources that people on unemployment insurance, when they lose the unemployment insurance, there's a very significant drop off in the amount of consumption spending that they do," Goolsbee said. "If you're going to have millions of people just before the holidays losing their benefits and then multiple millions in the months that follow losing their benefits, the impact on consumer spending is significant."

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The President Has No Time

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/12/02/the_president_has_no_time.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

December 02, 2010

"How should a president respond to a job that is increasingly an endless series of emergencies?" asks Slate, noting that the president is constantly struggling "to decide what can benefit from his attention and what's a media creation or a trick of the opposition that will waste his time."

"The conventional wisdom has emerged that the president has not sufficiently connected with voters in his first term... When is he going to find the time? There is always going to be another WikiLeaks emergency. There is always going to be a misbehaving North Korea or a bomb plot that we never hear about but that occupies the president's time. The expectations for presidential action must be reconfigured. The president may still have to pretend that he can do everything, but in truth he has to make wise choices in a frantic world, because the president never gets to Inbox Zero."

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Friday, December 03, 2010

Scalia Mocks Sotomayor’s Compassion For ‘People Sitting in Their Feces for Days in a Dazed State’

Nothing new. When Reagan was president, the majority Republican justices on the supreme court ruled that it is not unconstitutional to execute a person when evidence shows they are innocent, as long as the trial was conducted properly.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/12/03/scalia-feces/

One California inmate dies every eight days from inadequate medical care. In one case, a prisoner who experienced “recurrent severe abdominal pain and vomiting over a five week period” received no treatment until they eventually died. Moreover, lawsuits stretch back twenty years seeking to remedy these unconstitutional conditions — until a federal court finally ordered the state to reduce its prison population. That order is now before the Supreme Court.

Against this backdrop, Justice Sonia Sotomayor confronted California’s attorney with some of the more horrific stories from California’s unconstitutional prison system, and received a mocking response from fellow Justice Antonin Scalia:

JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR: Well, the best interest of the State of California, isn’t it to deliver adequate constitutional care to the people that it incarcerates? That’s a constitutional obligation.

MR. PHILLIPS: Absolutely. And California recognizes that.

JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR: So when are you going to get to that? When are you going to avoid the needless deaths that were reported in this record? When are you going to avoid or get around people sitting in their feces for days in a dazed state? When are you going to get to a point where you are going to deliver care that is going to be adequate?

JUSTICE SCALIA: Don’t be rhetorical.

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Long-Term Exposure to Pesticides May Be Linked to Dementia

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201191134.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 2, 2010) — Long term exposure to pesticides may be linked to the development of dementia, suggests research published online in Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

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This decline in MMSE score "is particularly striking in view of the short duration of follow up and the relatively young age of the participants," say the authors, who add that previous research has already reported an association between pesticide exposure and poor performance for several of the tests used in this study.

"The mild impairment we observed raises the question of the potentially higher risks of injury in this population and also of the possible evolution towards neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease or other dementias," they say.

And they add: "Numerous studies have shown that low cognitive performances are associated with risk of dementia."

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