Friday, April 14, 2017

March Was Second Hottest on Record Globally

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/march-2017-second-hottest-21351?utm_content=buffer29c82&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

By Andrea Thompson
April 14, 2017

The exceptional global heat of the past few years continued last month, with March ranking as the second hottest on record for the planet. It followed the second hottest February and third hottest January, showing just how much Earth has warmed from the continued buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

March was 2.02°F (1.12°C) warmer than the 1951-1980 average, according to NASA data released Friday. It ranks behind only March 2016, which was 2.29°F (1.27°C) above that same average. NASA’s global temperature records extend back 137 years.

While global temperatures in 2016 received a small boost from an exceptionally strong El Niño — which features warmer-than normal ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific — the majority of the temperature rise is due to human-caused global warming.

Current levels of carbon dioxide — the main greenhouse gas driving up global temperatures — are unprecedented in human history, and if they continued unabated, could reach a level not seen in the atmosphere in 50 million years, according to a recent study.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide levels have risen from about 280 parts per million to more than 400 ppm. Those levels are expected to top 410 ppm in the next few weeks.

While 2017 isn’t expected to top 2016 as the hottest year on record globally, in part because El Niño has dissipated (though there are some signs it could return later this year), it is still likely to rank among the hottest years, according to projections from the U.K. Met Office.

So far, global temperatures this year are on track with those projections, Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said.

“We have said a number of times now that we would likely see three record years in a row and then another very warm, but perhaps not record year, in 2017, so the small number of data we have so far for 2017 also concur with that,” he said in an email last month.

Of the 17 hottest years on record, 16 have occurred in the 21st century (the exception was the strong El Niño year of 1998), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The five warmest years have all occurred since 2010, according to NOAA, which will release its own global temperature data for March on April 19.

So far this year NOAA’s rankings have agreed with NASA’s.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Historian who predicted Trump's win says he'll be impeached

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment

Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body formally levels charges against a high official of Government. Impeachment does not necessarily mean removal from office; it is only a formal statement of charges, akin to an indictment in criminal law, and is thus only the first step towards removal. Once an individual is impeached, he or she must then face the possibility of conviction via legislative vote, which then entails the removal of the individual from office.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/305606-historian-who-predicted-trumps-win-says-hell-be-impeached

A political historian and professor who predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency has a new bet: Trump will be impeached.

“I'm going to make another prediction,” Allan Lichtman told The Washington Post Friday. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”

Lichtman isn't the first to predict that Trump could be impeached. University of Utah Law Professor Christopher Lewis Peterson wrote a 23-page article explaining the legal reasons Congress should impeach Trump. And on Friday, documentary filmmaker Michael Moore told MSNBC reporters he predicts Trump will either be impeached or resign before his term is up.

To date, no U.S. President has been removed from office by impeachment and conviction. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were successfully impeached but acquitted by the Senate, and Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached.

British spies were first to spot Trump team's links with Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia

Luke Harding, Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Nick Hopkins
Thursday 13 April 2017

Britain’s spy agencies played a crucial role in alerting their counterparts in Washington to contacts between members of Donald Trump’s campaign team and Russian intelligence operatives, the Guardian has been told.

GCHQ first became aware in late 2015 of suspicious “interactions” between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russian agents, a source close to UK intelligence said. This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information, they added.

•••••

It is understood that GCHQ was at no point carrying out a targeted operation against Trump or his team or proactively seeking information. The alleged conversations were picked up by chance as part of routine surveillance of Russian intelligence assets. Over several months, different agencies targeting the same people began to see a pattern of connections that were flagged to intelligence officials in the US.

•••••

The Guardian has been told the FBI and the CIA were slow to appreciate the extensive nature of contacts between Trump’s team and Moscow ahead of the US election. This was in part due to US law that prohibits US agencies from examining the private communications of American citizens without warrants. “They are trained not to do this,” the source stressed.

“It looks like the [US] agencies were asleep,” the source added. “They [the European agencies] were saying: ‘There are contacts going on between people close to Mr Trump and people we believe are Russian intelligence agents. You should be wary of this.’

•••••

Informative links


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/04/13/detroit-area-doctor-charged-with-performing-genital-mutilation-on-girls/?utm_term=.a9aa081d0309
https://www.yahoo.com/news/migrants-traded-slave-markets-libya-u-n-agency-130251715.html
https://www.quora.com/How-soon-will-Trump-supporters-lose-faith-in-his-ability-to-improve-their-lives/answer/Ruth-Sagers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/04/12/i-was-wrong-about-jeff-sessions/?utm_term=.8227cd7cff10
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39573642?SThisFB
http://www.businessinsider.com/drunk-richard-nixon-nuke-north-korea-2017-1
http://www.businessinsider.com/drunk-richard-nixon-nuke-north-korea-2017-1
https://www.musicindustryhowto.com/7-opportunities-unsigned-artists-have-that-signed-musicians-dont/
http://zackhemsey.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-misunderstood-art-of-artistry.html
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/uot-isr041117.php

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

The Russia story just keeps getting worse for President Trump

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/12/politics/trump-carter-page-russia-devin-nunes/

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-Large
Updated 1:16 PM ET, Wed April 12, 2017

Two stories dealing with Russia's meddling in the election broke Tuesday night. And both were full of bad news for President Donald Trump.
The first, an exclusive to CNN, revealed that a number of Democratic and Republican lawmakers on the House and Senate intelligence committees who have seen classified documents see no evidence that Obama administration officials did anything unusual or illegal, further suggesting Rep. Devin Nunes, R-California, misled Trump (and the public) when he described documents relating to the unmasking of Trump campaign officials caught up in an incidental collection operation by the intelligence community.

•••••

The second, broken by The Washington Post, reveals that the FBI obtained a secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court court warrant in August 2016 aimed at monitoring the communications of one-time Trump foreign policy adviser Carter Page. The key paragraph:
"The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page's communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials."

•••••

As FBI probe continues, Trump says it’s ‘not too late’ to fire Comey

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/fbi-probe-continues-trump-says-its-not-too-late-fire-comey?cid=sm_fb_maddow

04/12/17 04:20 PM—Updated 04/12/17 04:23 PM
By Steve Benen

In an interview with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo, Donald Trump was asked about “Obama-era staffers” that continue to serve in the executive branch. As the Washington Post reported, one official in particular stood out as important.

President Trump said in an interview aired Wednesday morning that he has “confidence” in FBI Director James B. Comey, but it was “not too late” to fire him.

Trump has long sent mixed signals on Comey and the bureau director’s future in government, though his comments to Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo are especially important because Comey has now confirmed that the bureau is investigating possible coordination between the Russian government and the Trump campaign to influence the presidential election.

This was all rather odd. For example, Bartiromo characterized Comey as an Obama-era “staffer,” but that’s not quite right. FBI directors are appointed to serve fixed 10-year terms – in large part to help shield directors from overt political influence and pressures – and in this case, the Democratic president chose a Republican to fill the post. That didn’t mean Comey was part of Obama’s “staff.”

•••••

In the same Fox interview, Trump went on and on about his strange belief that Comey helped Hillary Clinton last year:

•••••

In fact, Comey intervened in the election in such a way that almost certainly cost Clinton the presidential race, all while hiding information from the public about the Trump campaign being under investigation for possibly cooperating with a foreign adversary. To say that Comey was “very, very good to Hillary Clinton” is hopelessly ridiculous and completely at odds with the real-world events of 2016.

So why on earth would Trump make such absurd, demonstrably false claims about Comey now? Probably because the president wants to lay the groundwork for future complaints: if the FBI finds evidence of collusion between Team Trump and Moscow, the president wants to be able to tell his partisan allies, “I told you Comey was on Clinton’s side.”

That wouldn’t be at all true, but Trump’s laying down a marker now, just in case.

The U.S. has caused more global warming than any other country.

Also, much of the carbon emission in China come from producing stuff for the U.S. And transporting it a long distance adds to the problem.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/01/22/the-u-s-has-contributed-more-to-global-warming-than-any-other-country-heres-how-the-earth-will-get-its-revenge/?utm_term=.0655e15d25a5

By Chris Mooney January 22, 2015

•••••

You may have heard that China has recently surpassed the United States in annual greenhouse gas emissions — becoming the largest emitter. That’s true, but it’s a relatively recent occurrence (within the last decade). Looking back over time, the United States is far and away the number one emitter.

This analysis from the World Resources Institute shows that from 1850 to the year 2011, the United States, a single country, produced 27 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions of the world. No other single country was close — indeed, the U.S. even outdistanced all the nations of the European Union combined:

And the thing about carbon dioxide is, it stays up in the atmosphere for a very, very long time. A recent study by geoscientist Raymond Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago found that, for a sudden pulse of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that raises the concentration to 1,250 parts per million over pre-industrial levels (which were about 280 parts per million), about 900 parts per million of carbon dioxide will still be up there after 100 years. Indeed, concentrations will only decline to 675 parts per million over another 900 years.

Thus, much of the carbon pollution emitted over the last 150 or 160 years is very much still with us. It’s still determining our future even today. Which means that for the global warming that the world is currently experiencing and will experience, the United States remains more responsible than any other single country.

And now the comeuppance: In the event of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, scientists have determined that the United States will receive more sea level rise than almost any other part of the world. (Granted, so will other countries in North America, like Canada and Mexico, which have considerably less global warming responsibility.)

•••••

West Antarctica is so large that it pulls the global ocean toward it, which slopes upward toward the ice sheet and the Antarctic continent in general. But if West Antarctica were to lose a substantial part of its ice, then the gravitational pull would relax, and sea level would actually decrease near the ice sheet even as it spreads and increases across the global ocean.

But not evenly. Instead, areas farther from West Antarctica would get more sea level rise, and North America and the United States might get more than any other inhabited place on Earth.

•••••

So why does the United States get extra sea level rise? It turns out to be a geophysical “triple whammy,” in Mitrovica’s words.

The first and largest part of the effect is simply gravity. But that’s not the only effect.

In addition, explains Mitrovica, taking a gigantic amount of ice off of the land of West Antarctica leads the crust of the Earth to rebound and thrust upward — pushing the ocean away from it. “That Jack in the Box will be pushing water out of the Antarctic,” says Mitrovica. Some of that pushed water also comes all the way to the northern hemisphere and adds additional sea level rise.

And then, there’s the most mind-boggling effect of all — what Bamber calls “true polar wander.” Basically, moving this massive amount of ice off of West Antarctica also shifts the planet’s axis of rotation slightly. Bamber likens it to how a spinning wheel with gum stuck to it will change its spin somewhat if you stick the gum somewhere closer to the center of the wheel, where the axis of rotation is.

For this reason, says Bamber, “the water sloshes about a little bit in the east-west direction,” and North America gets more of it than Europe does. Triple whammy indeed.

•••••

What will never be equitable, though, is this: The U.S. is a rich country. It can pay a lot more to adapt to climate change and to rising sea levels. Poorer countries might get a little less sea level rise in scenarios like the one discussed here — but they’re radically less able to cope with it.

And gravity can’t do anything about that.

NPR earns it's corporate donations


April 12, 2017

NPR is earning their corporate donations from the Koch brothers and other fossil fuel global warming denialists. In reporting on the role of atmospheric waves, they started out saying that while come have believed global warming had a hand in the recent severe California drought, that instead it was cause by atmospheric waves. This ignore that (1) whatever the basic cause, global warming is making such event more severe, and (2) global warming will affect the timing and severity of these atmospheric waves.
And they encourage the simplistic thinking that attributes a single cause to an event, when it should be automatic that we realize that most complex events have more than one cause.

Tips to Spot False News


https://www.facebook.com/help/188118808357379?qp_instance_log_data[randomization_seed]=1492030607&qp_instance_log_data[os_type]=Windows&qp_instance_log_data[browser_name]=Firefox&qp_instance_log_data[browser_ver]=52

here are some tips on what to look out for:

  1. Be skeptical of headlines. False news stories often have catchy headlines in all caps with exclamation points. If shocking claims in the headline sound unbelievable, they probably are.
  2. Look closely at the URL. A phony or look-alike URL may be a warning sign of false news. Many false news sites mimic authentic news sources by making small changes to the URL. You can go to the site to compare the URL to established sources.
  3. Investigate the source. Ensure that the story is written by a source that you trust with a reputation for accuracy. If the story comes from an unfamiliar organization, check their "About" section to learn more.
  4. Watch for unusual formatting. Many false news sites have misspellings or awkward layouts. Read carefully if you see these signs.
  5. Consider the photos. False news stories often contain manipulated images or videos. Sometimes the photo may be authentic, but taken out of context. You can search for the photo or image to verify where it came from.
  6. Inspect the dates. False news stories may contain timelines that make no sense, or event dates that have been altered.
  7. Check the evidence. Check the author's sources to confirm that they are accurate. Lack of evidence or reliance on unnamed experts may indicate a false news story.
  8. Look at other reports. If no other news source is reporting the same story, it may indicate that the story is false. If the story is reported by multiple sources you trust, it's more likely to be true.
  9. Is the story a joke? Sometimes false news stories can be hard to distinguish from humor or satire. Check whether the source is known for parody, and whether the story's details and tone suggest it may be just for fun.
  10. Some stories are intentionally false. Think critically about the stories you read, and only share news that you know to be credible.

Court order allowed FBI to monitor Trump aide Carter Page

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/04/11/fbi-obtained-fisa-warrant-monitor-former-trump-adviser-carter-page/FDl5q9mmIYoF7rRZS74xdN/story.html?s_campaign=email_BG_TodaysHeadline&s_campaign=

By Ellen Nakashima, Devlin Barrett and Adam Entous Washington Post April 11, 2017

The FBI obtained a secret court order last summer to monitor the communications of an adviser to presidential candidate Donald Trump, part of an investigation into possible links between Russia and the campaign, law enforcement and other US officials said.

The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials.

This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

•••••

FBI Director James Comey disclosed in public testimony to the House Intelligence Committee last month that the bureau is investigating efforts by the Russian government to interfere in the presidential election.

Comey said this includes investigating the ‘‘nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia’s efforts.’’

•••••

The government’s application for the surveillance order targeting Page included a lengthy declaration that laid out investigators’ basis for believing that Page was an agent of the Russian government and knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of Moscow, officials said.

Among other things, the application cited contacts that Page had with a Russian intelligence operative in New York City in 2013, officials said. Those contacts had earlier surfaced in a federal espionage case brought by the Justice Department against another Russian agent. In addition, the application said Page had other contacts with Russian operatives that have not been publicly disclosed, officials said.

•••••

How to speed up YouTube playback with a keystroke

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pogues-basics-speed-youtube-playback-keystroke-160348751.html

David Pogue, tech columnist for Yahoo Finance
April 6, 2017

If you’re a longtime Pogue’s Basics fan, then you already know that you can jump 10 seconds ahead in playback of a YouTube video by pressing the L key. And jump 10 seconds back with the H key. And pause or unpause the video with the letter K.

You may also remember that the number keys on your keyboard, 1 through 0, represent 10-percent increments through the video. Hit 3 to jump 30% of the way in, for example.

Here’s one more: It’s often super helpful to watch a video on high speed, especially if it’s a slow talker. Usually you have to do a bunch of clicks to adjust the speed, starting with the gear icon at the lower right.

Fortunately there’s a keyboard shortcut: type >! That is, Shift-period. And less-than (<, or Shift-comma) to slow it down. Very cool!

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

No democracy without women's rights

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/uog-ndw041117.php

Public Release: 11-Apr-2017
No democracy without women's rights
University of Gothenburg

Why did the Arab spring fail? Despite a number of revolutions in the Arab world, in the end only Tunisia emerged as a functioning democracy. Results from an interdisciplinary research project at the University of Gothenburg indicate that the problem might be traced partially to the lack of women's civil rights in the region.

A new study published in the European Journal of Political Research discusses the importance of women's rights for countries to become democratic.

•••••

The study demonstrates that countries do not become fully democratic without political and social rights for women. This is particularly true for the Arab Spring countries, where the failure to foster women's rights compromised any attempt at democratic governance in the area.

According to Professor Staffan Lindberg, director of the V-Dem Institute, the result is important because it shows that democratic development is not gender blind: societies transitioning from authoritarian regimes strongly need women in order to develop functioning democratic governments.

Consistent pattern

The study revealed that civil rights for both men and women - rights to own property, freedom of speech and movement, and freedom from forced labor - were always present at a high level before constitutional rights were implemented. This pattern can be observed in almost all cases of successful democratization from 1900 onward in the 177 countries investigated.

"Our results clearly indicate the importance of women's civil rights, because women's rights increase the costs of authoritarian repression and enable women to organize in democratization movements. Without these basic rights, no country has managed to democratize fully," says Yi-Ting Wang, the lead author of the study.

The only country that is different in this regard is Tunisia, whose progressive president Habib Bourbuiba implemented several basic rights for women already when the country gained independence in the 1950s. Consequently, the only country that made a successful transition to democracy during the Arab spring was Tunisia.

•••••

Informative links


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2017/04/11/devos-dials-back-consumer-protections-for-student-loan-borrowers/?utm_term=.581fd8c7fb78
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/08/nyregion/eugene-lang-dead-harlem-college.html?_r=0
http://reneweconomy.com.au/battery-breakthrough-by-94yo-inventor-addresses-costs-and-life-cycle-20181/
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/91975589-257c-403b-8093-8f3b584a088c/income-inequality-brief-fall-2010-cmb-and-ces.pdf
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-negative-effects-of-income-inequality-on-society-2011-11#worst-of-all-it-destroys-the-thing-americans-pride-our-country-on-the-most--opportunity-12

Henry Ford on wages

Note that while productivity has been decreasing, wages for the middle incomes have been stagnant, and wages for the lower incomes have been decreasing, allowing for inflation.

From "My Life and Work : An Autobiography of Henry Ford" Chapter 8 : Wages

I believe in the first place that, all other considerations aside, our own sales depend in a measure upon the wages we pay. If we can distribute high wages, then that money is going to be spent and it will serve to make storekeepers and distributors and manufacturers and workers in other lines more prosperous and their prosperity will be relected in our sales. Country-wide high wages spell country-wide prosperity, provided, however, the higher wages are paid for higher production.

..

Another Record Low Month for Sea Ice

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/march-record-low-sea-ice-21338

By Brian Kahn
April 11, 2017

Climate change continues its rapid reshaping of the Arctic as yet another month saw sea ice set a record-low mark.

March data just released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center marks six months in a row of near-record or record-low sea ice for the region. It’s a story that’s been reported so often recently, it risks feeling almost normal. But make no mistake. There has never been a run like this in nearly 40 years of satellite data.

Sea ice was missing from a 452,000-square-mile area it usually covers in March. That’s an area roughly the size of Sweden. Warm weather was yet again a major culprit in the case of the missing ice.

Temperatures were up to 13°F above normal along Russia’s coastal seas. Incidentally, those areas — particularly the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk — were home to some of the largest sea ice anomalies.

Sea ice thickness is an even more important indicator for the melt season, which is underway after setting a record-low peak in early March (for the third year running, no less).

Just as extent has set a record low in March, so too has thickness, according to data from the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center. NSIDC also reported that ice thinner than 6 feet “covers a much larger region and extends much farther north than it used to — well north of 80°N latitude on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.”

Thin — and generally younger — sea ice is more susceptible to melt than its older, thicker counterpart. Yet young, thin ice is making up an increasingly large portion of Arctic ice pack as climate change whittles away at stores of old ice.

•••••

EPA to cut programs that keep children safe from lead

https://thinkprogress.org/epa-to-cut-programs-that-keep-children-safe-from-lead-ccbe32f49363

Yvette Cabrera
April 6, 2017

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to slash funding for programs that protect children from dangerous lead exposure. The move would eliminate programs that raise public awareness about the toxic metal’s risks and train workers on how to safely remove lead-based paint.

•••••

Research has shown that the neurotoxic effects of lead on a child’s developing brain can be devastating and irreversible. An estimated 2.6 percent of preschool children in the U.S. have a blood lead concentration greater than 5 micrograms per deciliter, the level at which the federal government recommends public health intervention.

Elevated blood lead levels can lead to increased aggression, lack of impulse control, hyperactivity, inability to focus, inattention, and delinquent behaviors. A growing body of evidence has also shown that low blood lead levels are associated with multiple issues such as lowered IQ levels, attention-related behaviors and poor academic achievement.

•••••

The EPA has also proposed slashing a $14.05 million program that provides grants to state and tribal jurisdictions that tackle lead-based paint risks. In the memo, the EPA states that the “funding for this mature program is eliminated, returning the responsibility for funding to state.”

Monday, April 10, 2017

Indian police arrest alleged ringleader of IRS scam

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/09/news/tax-scam-india-arrest-ringleader/index.html

by Zahraa Alkhalisi @CNNMoney April 9, 2017

Police in India have arrested a man they say was the ringleader of a network of call centers that allegedly swindled thousands of Americans out of millions of dollars.

Sagar Thakkar, 24, was detained in Mumbai after arriving on a flight from Dubai on Saturday.

"He was the mastermind of IRS scam call centers in the state of Maharashtra and one center in Ahmedabad," said Mukund Hatote, assistant commissioner of police in Thane, just north of Mumbai.

Hatote said Thakkar stands accused of extortion, cheating, impersonation, criminal conspiracy as well as violating India's communications and tech laws.

News of the scam broke last October when Indian police raided nine calls centers -- eight in Thane in Maharashtra -- and arrested more than 70 people on suspicion of posing as IRS agents to steal cash from U.S. citizens.

Workers at bogus call centers used American accents to impersonate IRS agents. They told their victims that they owed back taxes and would risk arrest if they hung up or failed to pay up.

Thakkar -- also known as "Shaggy" -- was one of 61 defendants mentioned in a U.S. indictment unsealed last October. The bogus call center workers were accused of stealing from 15,000 people by using the IRS scam and other fraud schemes.

U.S. prosecutors say the defendants also posed as immigration officers and threatened victims with deportation unless they paid a fine immediately. They said in October that 20 people across eight U.S. states had been arrested.

Indian police say they have charged more than 390 people in connection with the scheme, and more than 12 remain in jail.

•••••

I'm still hungry


Listen Christian

By Bob Rowland
(from a poem in WITNESS magazine Circa 1972)
I also saw this ascribed to M. Lunn


Listen Christian,
I was hungry
And you formed a humanities club
And discussed my hunger.
Thank you.

I was imprisoned
And you crept off quietly
To your chapel in the cellar
And prayed for my release.

I was naked,
And in your mind
You debated the morality
Of my appearance.

I was sick
And you knelt and thanked God
For your health.

I was homeless
And you preached to me
Of the spiritual shelter
Of the Love of God.

I was lonely
And you left me alone
to pray for me.

You seem so holy;
So close to God.
But I’m still very hungry,

Sunday, April 09, 2017

Informative links


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/economic-inequality-it-s-far-worse-than-you-think/
http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/inequality-hurts-economic-growth.htm
https://www.hepmag.com/article/looks-like-boomers-get-hepatitis-c-youthful-drug-use
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/energy-dept-scrubs-paris-agreement-from-climate-page-21327?utm_content=buffer0f79e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2123650-older-people-are-just-as-good-at-judging-music-as-younger-adults/
http://fortune.com/2017/04/07/syria-airstrikes-tomahawk-missile-boeing-raytheon-stock/
https://www.rdmag.com/article/2017/04/study-finds-night-owl-gene-variant
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/06/former-israeli-security-chiefs-warn-of-tyranny
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/06/fasten-your-seatbelts-climate-change-could-increase-air-turbulence/?utm_term=.7e7be91d4625
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/04/06/the-government-is-demanding-to-know-who-this-trump-critic-is-twitter-is-suing-to-keep-it-a-secret/?utm_term=.b95b63693cf7

Friday, April 07, 2017

New study links carbon pollution to extreme weather

https://skepticalscience.com/new-study-carbon-pollution-extreme-weather.html

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/apr/07/new-study-links-carbon-pollution-to-extreme-weather

Posted on 7 April 2017 by John Abraham

It was only a few weeks ago that I wrote about changes to extreme weather in a warming world. That prior article dealt with the increase of extreme precipitation events as the Earth warms. I termed the relationship a thermodynamic one; it was driven by local thermodynamic processes. But extreme weather can also occur because of large-scale changes to the atmosphere and oceans. This issue is the topic of another just-published paper that makes a convincing case for a whole new type of influence of humans on extreme weather.

•••••

Before getting into the study, a little background. The jet stream(s) are high-speed rivers of air that flow in the upper atmosphere. There’s more than one jet stream; they blow west to east and they mark the separation of zones of different temperatures. A good primer on jet streams is available here.

If you were to stand at the northern pole and travel southwards, you would experience a gradual increase in temperature. However, when you reached the first jet stream (the Polar Jet), temperatures would rapidly become warmer. That is, the Polar Jet separates two different temperature air regions. Typically, if you are north of the jet stream, you are in a colder zone whereas if you are south of the stream, it is warmer. Sometimes, the jet streams undulate as they encircle the planet and these undulations move. So, sometimes you happen to be in a position north and sometimes south of the stream, even though your location is fixed.

The interface between warm and cold temperatures creates a lot of weather-pattern changes. In addition, if the undulations of the streams become fixed, it means your weather patterns will get stuck. For instance, you could find yourself in an upward undulation for weeks or longer and experience warm and potentially dry weather. Alternatively, if your location is north of a stuck jet undulation, you may experience persistent cold weather. Perhaps even more importantly, these stuck waves can become larger in their magnitude.

•••••

Using measurements, the authors documented what conditions led to extreme weather patterns that persisted for extended durations. They found that many occur when the jet stream becomes stationary with the undulations stuck in place. They also saw that under certain situations, the jet stream undulations do not dissipate in time; they become trapped in a wave guide.

Interestingly, this pattern of a stuck jet stream would occur when the number of undulations was between six and eight. When these circumstances all lined up, according to study co-author Stefan Rahmstorf:

the same weather persists for weeks on end in one region, then sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave and drought, and lasting rains can lead to flooding

And this is also how humans come into the story. As humans emit greenhouse gases, the planet warms. We know that, we predicted it, and it is occurring. However, the warming is not uniform. The Arctic, for instance, is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet. As a result, the temperature difference between the Arctic and the rest of the world is reducing. It is this temperature difference that maintains the jet stream patterns.

•••••

The authors compared the observations to computer models and they found similar patterns. The authors went on to say in a press release:

Using the simulations, we demonstrate that rising greenhouse gases are responsible for the increase ... We are now able to connect the dots when it comes to human-caused global warming and an array of extreme recent weather events.


•••••

Why did we see 'the dress' differently? The answer lies in the shadows, new research finds

Works for me. I'm a night owl, and do see the dress as blue and black/gray.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/nyu-wdw040317.php

Public Release: 7-Apr-2017
Why did we see 'the dress' differently? The answer lies in the shadows, new research finds
New York University

When "the dress" went viral in 2015, millions were divided on its true colors: gold and white or black and blue? In a new study, New York University neuroscientist Pascal Wallisch concludes that these differences in perception are due to our assumptions about how the dress was illuminated.

Those who thought that the dress, worn by the mother of a bride at a wedding in Scotland, was photographed in a shadow likely saw the garment as gold and white; by contrast, those who thought it was illuminated by artificial light were more likely to see it as black and blue.

•••••

"Shadows are blue, so we mentally subtract the blue light in order to view the image, which then appears in bright colors--gold and white," Wallisch continues. "However, artificial light tends to be yellowish, so if we see it brightened in this fashion, we factor out this color, leaving us with a dress that we see as black and blue.

"This is a basic cognitive function: to appreciate the color on an object, the illumination source has to be taken into account, which the brain does continuously."

•••••

He hypothesized that differing perceptions could be linked to one's exposure to daylight--quite simply, people who rise and go to bed early, and spend many of their waking hours in sunlight (i.e., under a blue sky), are more likely to see the dress as white and gold than are night owls, whose world is illuminated not by the sun, but, rather, by long-wavelength artificial light.

To test this, he asked participants if they go to bed early and feel best in the morning (i.e., "larks") or if they like to sleep in and feel best at night ("owls"), then matched this self-identified circadian type with how they saw the dress. Consistent with the hypothesis, larks were significantly more likely to see the dress as white and gold--relative to owls--underscoring the relative effects of exposure to daylight.

"This suggests that whatever kind of light one is typically exposed to influences how one perceives color," Wallisch says.

Conversely, demographic factors such as gender and age had comparatively small effects on the perception of the dress image.

•••••

Big women have nearly threefold greater risk of atrial fibrillation

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/esoc-bwh040517.php

Public Release: 7-Apr-2017
Big women have nearly threefold greater risk of atrial fibrillation
Big women were taller, heavier, and had a greater body surface area
European Society of Cardiology

Big women have a nearly threefold greater risk of atrial fibrillation than small women, according to research presented today at EuroPrevent 2017.1 The study included 1.5 million women who were followed-up for more than 30 years.

Atrial fibrillation is the most common heart rhythm disorder, with a 20% lifetime risk. It occurs most often in people over 60 years of age and increases the risk of stroke and heart failure.

"Our research has previously shown that a large body size at age 20, and weight gain from age 20 to midlife, both independently increase the risk of atrial fibrillation in men," said author Professor Annika Rosengren, professor of internal medicine at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.2 "In this study we investigated the impact of body size on atrial fibrillation risk in women."

•••••

Body surface area (BSA) in m2 was calculated by a standard formula based on weight and height. Women were divided into four groups according to BSA: 0.97-1.61, 1.61-1.71, 1.71-1.82, and 1.82-3.02 m2.

•••••

"We found that bigger women have a greater risk of atrial fibrillation," said Professor Rosengren. "There was a stepwise elevation in risk with increasing body size. The group with the highest body surface area had nearly three times the risk as those with the lowest body surface area."

BSA is influenced by both height and weight. Compared to women with the lowest BSA, those with the highest BSA were 9 cm taller (161 versus 170 cm), 28 kg heavier (54 versus 82 kg), and had a higher body mass index (BMI: 21 versus 28 kg/m2).

"Atrial fibrillation is the result of obesity-related metabolic changes but there is also a second cause," said Professor Rosengren. "Big people - not necessarily fat, but big - have a larger atrium, which is where atrial fibrillation comes from. People with a bigger atrium have a higher risk of atrial fibrillation."

"Generally it's better to be tall because you have less risk of stroke and heart attack, and better survival," continued Professor Rosengren. "Taller people are often are better educated, have higher socioeconomic status, and may have received better nutrition at a young age and in the womb. But in this case being tall is less desirable because it alters the structure of the heart in a way that may be conducive to atrial fibrillation."

Professor Rosengren pointed out that the absolute risk of atrial fibrillation in these young women, regardless of weight, height or BSA was very low (less than 0.5%). "In general young women need not worry about their risk of atrial fibrillation, whatever their body size," she said. "For older women and men, being big could be an indicator that you are at increased risk of atrial fibrillation. In the clinic I have seen many big people with atrial fibrillation."

She concluded: "If you are very tall, I think that it could be a good idea to avoid accumulating excess weight. That would apply to both men and women."

As the wealthy get wealthier, carbon emissions grow in US states

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/bc-mtb040617.php

Public Release: 7-Apr-2017
Money to burn: As the wealthy get wealthier, carbon emissions grow in US states
Boston College study the first to link income inequality and growth in carbon emissions at the state level
Boston College

Across the U.S., state-level carbon emissions are higher in states where income is more highly concentrated among the wealthiest residents, according to a new study by two Boston College researchers.

On a global level, the connection between national wealth and carbon emissions has been well documented. The study, by sociologists Andrew Jorgenson and Juliet Schor, is the first to link income inequality and carbon emissions within and across the individual U.S. states.

The study found that state-level carbon emissions between 1997 and 2012 were positively associated with the income share of the top 10 percent of a state's population, according to the findings, published online and in the April edition of the journal Ecological Economics.

•••••

Spending power drives carbon-intensive consumerism. But so do the political clout and economic power of the wealthiest individuals, according to Jorgenson and Schor, whose analysis with co-author and BC graduate student Xiaorui Huang employed established economic models that assess the political and economic influence of individual wealth on society.

"First, income concentration leads to concentrated political power and the ability to prevent regulations on carbon emissions," said Schor, a professor of sociology. "Second, high income consumers are disproportionate carbon polluters."

•••••

"What we find here in the context of income inequality and carbon emissions is that it's about the concentration of income at the top of the distribution," said Jorgenson. "In our statistical models, where the Gini coefficient is non-significant, across the board the wealth of the top 10 percent is. That tells us that it really is about income concentration at the top end of the distribution."

•••••

Deep cuts to environmental research in Trump’s budget proposal

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2123641-deep-cuts-to-environmental-research-in-trumps-budget-proposal/

6 March 2017
[I saw this in the March 11-17 issue of the magazine]
By Chelsea Whyte

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is facing reductions to its research arm totaling $126 million, or 26 per cent of its current budget, according to reports by the Washington Post.

NOAA’s SeaGrant program, which funds coastal research in 33 states and supplied the Gulf Coast states with science-based guidance during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, is up for elimination entirely.

•••••

A 5 per cent reduction in budget is proposed for the National Marine Fisheries Service, as well as the National Weather Service.

While that may seem relatively low, NOAA’s satellite division is facing a proposed $513 million drop, or a 22 per cent budget cut. Those satellites produce 90 per cent of the data that inform weather service forecasts.

Satellite data from NOAA is also used to monitor drought, help rescue lost planes or ships and track climate change.

“There are climate instruments on some of the satellites that are being built and some of the satellites that are being operated,” Lubchenco says. “Given other statements that this administration has made about climate change, it would seem quite possible that the targets are intended to impair the activities that are climate related.”

•••••

The Environmental Protection Agency has been targeted by the Trump Administration as well, with a proposed 25 per cent cut to the overall budget.

The proposal suggests a 40 per cent reduction to EPA’s research and development office, from roughly $510 million to $290 million, according to reports from Science News.

In a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine, three former EPA officials write that “research funding and scientific capacity related to the environment should be enhanced, not reduced, to enable us to grapple with ongoing and emerging problems”.

The paper was authored by Jonathan Samet, previously chair of the EPA Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee; Thomas Burke, former EPA science adviser and former head of the EPA’s Office of Research and Development under the Obama administration; and Bernard Goldstein, EPA assistant administrator for research and development during the Reagan administration.

They write that EPA’s regulations are key to improvements over the last 40 years in public health and disaster response. The programs that fund research on air and water, as well as those that cover chemical safety and sustainable healthy communities, are set to receive large cuts in the proposed budget.

“We are certain that unforeseen challenges will continue to arise and that we therefore need a vibrant environmental health science enterprise.”

U.S. had 2nd warmest year to date and 9th warmest March on record

http://www.noaa.gov/news/us-had-2nd-warmest-year-to-date-and-9th-warmest-march-on-record

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
April 6, 2017

Last month, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 46.2 degrees F, 4.7 degrees above the 20th-century average. This ranked as the ninth warmest March in the 123-year period of record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Record and near-record warmth spanned 13 states in the West and Great Plains, with below-average temperatures in the Northeast.

The average precipitation total for March was 2.56 inches, 0.05 inch above the 20th-century average, and ranked near the middle of the record. Much-above-average precipitation across the Northwest offset much-below-average precipitation in the Southeast.

The year-to-date (January through March 2017) average temperature was 40.3 degrees F, 5.1 degrees above the 20th-century average. This was the second warmest first quarter of the year in the record behind 2012. The year-to-date precipitation total for the Lower 48 states was 8.09 inches, 1.13 inches above average. This ranked as the 10th wettest for this period on record.

More notable climate events

Record number of billion-dollar disasters: From January to March, the U.S. experienced 5 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, a record start to the year. These included a flood, a freeze, and three severe storms, collectively causing 37 fatalities.

Wildfires burned vast areas of Great Plains, Southeast: Warm and windy conditions across the Great Plains and Southeast fueled wildfires that burned more than two million acres. This was nearly 700 percent of average and set a new record for March.

Record-warm March for the Southern Rockies: Colorado and New Mexico had their warmest March on record, with near record warmth throughout the West and Southern Plains.

Tornadoes plagued the Midwest: Several tornado outbreaks impacted the central U.S., including tornadoes in late February and early March that killed 4 people in Illinois and Missouri.

Cold returned to Alaska: The average statewide temperature in March was 4.1 degrees F, 6.7 degrees F below average and the coldest since 2007. This ended the state’s stretch of 17 continuous months of above-average temperatures.

Continued drought relief in the West: By the end of March, 14.2 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up slightly from the end of February. Drought expanded and intensified in Mississippi River Valley and Hawaii’s Big Island and improved in the West and Northeast. Mountain snowpack totals across most of the West were above average.

Thursday, April 06, 2017

Rich Americans live up to 15 years longer than poor peers, studies find

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/06/us-healthcare-wealth-income-inequality-lifespan

Jessica Glenza
April 6, 2017\

•••••

Increasing inequality means wealthy Americans can now expect to live up to 15 years longer than their poor counterparts, reports in the British medical journal the Lancet have found.
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Researchers said these disparities appear to be worsened by the American health system itself, which relies on for-profit insurance companies, and is the most expensive in the world.

Their conclusion? Treat healthcare as a human right.
Obamacare repeal thwarted again as Mike Pence fails to reach deal
Read more

“Healthcare is not a commodity,” wrote US Senator Bernie Sanders in an opinion article introducing the issue of the journal, which is devoted to inequality in American healthcare. “The goal of a healthcare system should be to keep people well, not to make stockholders rich. The USA has the most expensive, bureaucratic, wasteful, and ineffective healthcare system in the world.”

Sanders, like authors of the lead report, called for single-payer health insurance or what Americans might know as “Medicare for all”, a reference to an existing public health program for older Americans.

•••••

Among the studies’ key findings: the richest 1% live up to 15 years longer than the poorest 1%; the same gap in life expectancy widened in recent decades, making poverty a powerful indicator for death; more than one-third of low-income Americans avoid medical care because of costs (compared to 7% in Canada and 1% in the UK); the poorest fifth of Americans pay twice as much for healthcare as a share of income (6% for the poor, versus 3.2% for the rich); and life expectancy would have grown 51.1% more from 1983 to 2005 had mass incarceration not accelerated in the mid-1980s.

The poorest Americans have suffered in particular, with life expectancies falling in some groups even while medicine has advanced. For example, researchers reported that the poorest fifth of women born between 1930 and 1960 statistically lived four years less than Americans in the top fifth of the socioeconomic spectrum.

All of these health outcomes arrive in the context of widening general inequality. The share of total income going to the top 1% of earners has more than doubled since 1970, making the US more unequal than all but three developed countries: Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

At the same time, the ACA brought relief to many. The number of Americans without insurance dropped from 48.6 million in 2010 to 28.6 million in 2015. The number of Americans who struggle with medical bills dropped from 41% to 35% in 2014.

Further, accounting for current public health insurance programs, military healthcare, the portion of local and state budgets used to purchase private health insurance for workers, and subsidies to employers to buy workers health insurance, researchers believe as much as 65% of health insurance nationally is already paid for by taxpayers.

•••••

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

Wealth didn’t matter. Pollution from a coal-fired plant, carried miles by wind, still hurt their babies.

What the republicans want more of.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/03/wealth-didnt-matter-pollution-from-a-coal-fired-plant-carried-miles-by-wind-still-hurt-their-babies/?utm_term=.0b2017c7d3ff&wpisrc=nl_most-draw14&wpmm=1

Wealth didn’t matter. Pollution from a coal-fired plant, carried miles by wind, still hurt their babies.
By Darryl Fears April 3, 2017

•••••

New research released Monday documents the impact that pollution from a coal-fired plant in Pennsylvania had on four wealthy New Jersey counties as far as 30 miles downwind. Women in those counties had a greater risk of having babies of low or very low birthweight — less than 5½ pounds — than did women in similarly affluent areas.

It didn’t matter that the mothers there had advantages that low-income mothers don’t: money and access to private health care. Their babies still appeared to suffer from the effects of air pollution, specifically wind-borne sulfur emissions. The study authors say stronger federal regulation of emissions from coal-fired plants is needed to safeguard human health.

•••••

The Myth That the Estate Tax Threatens Small Farms



Chloe Cho
April 4, 2017

•••••

Only 50 small farm and small business estates in the entire country will pay any estate tax in 2017 (see chart), and they’ll owe less than 6 percent of their value in tax, on average, the Tax Policy Center estimates.

The estate tax affects so few small farms and businesses because the first $5.49 million of assets per person ($10.98 million per couple) are entirely exempt from it. Moreover, most farmers and business owners with estates large enough to owe the tax have sufficient liquid assets (such as bank accounts, stocks, and bonds) to pay the tax without having to touch other assets or liquidate their farm and business, a 2005 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study found. Today’s estate tax rules are even more generous than those CBO assumed in its analysis. Special estate tax provisions also allow estate tax filers to spread their payments over a 15-year period at low interest rates.

While doing next to nothing for family farms, repeal would provide a windfall to the wealthiest 0.2 percent of estates — the only ones large enough to pay the tax. A repeal proposal recently reintroduced in the Senate would provide the 0.2 percent of wealthiest estates with an average tax cut of more than $3 million in 2017. Roughly 330 estates worth more than $50 million would get more than $20 million apiece in tax cuts, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. The proposal would also cost $269 billion over the decade, expanding deficits and adding to pressure for cuts in federal programs.

The impact of smoke pollution on health in the 19th century

The good old days republicans want to return to.

http://voxeu.org/article/smoke-pollution-and-health-19th-century

Quantifying the impact of smoke pollution on health in the 19th century
Timothy Hatton 03 April 2017
Professor of Economics, Australian National University and University of Essex; and Research Fellow, CEPR

There is growing concern over the effects of atmospheric pollution on health. In 2016 WHO reported that 92% of the world’s population lives in in places where air pollution exceeds WHO limits (WHO 2016). It is calculated that outdoor air pollution accounts for three million deaths per year. And most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The dense smog in China’s cities provides a sharp contrast to the relatively clean air of cities in the West.

But it was a different story a century ago. Coal-fired industrialisation in Europe spawned factories that belched black smoke, with little government regulation. Black smoke from these emissions was in the order of 50 times higher than today. Partly for this reason, urban centres had much higher mortality rates than rural areas. Indeed, there is evidence that the mortality gradient by industrial emissions was steeper in 19th century Britain than it is in China today (Hanlon and Tian 2015).

The more modest levels of atmospheric pollution in recent times, as reflected by concentrations of particulate matter and other pollutants, have been linked to premature death and to a variety of illnesses (Currie et al. 2013). Children are especially vulnerable as their lungs are still developing and they are prone to repeated infection.

•••••

We use regression analysis to control for household characteristics, including the social class of the head of the household and the number of siblings in the family. We also control for local population density, which has a strong negative effect on height. In the presence of these controls we find a significant negative relationship between coal intensity and adult height. This predicts a difference of nearly an inch (2cm) between the least and the most coal-intensive locations (10th vs 90th percentiles).

•••••

In order to identify the channels through which atmospheric pollution affected adult height during childhood, we turn to the mortality statistics. Respiratory diseases accounted for over 20% of all deaths of those aged under five. Death rates from respiratory causes varied widely between districts and they are strongly correlated with the death rates from all causes. Looking across districts, we find that our measure of coal intensity has a strong positive effect on the respiratory death rate.

•••••

From the birth cohorts of the 1890s to the those of the 1980s the heights of British men have increased by 2.75 inches (7cm) (Hatton and Bray 2010). So the decline in atmospheric pollution may have contributed significantly to improved health over the long run.

Informative links


http://www.upworthy.com/when-wolves-were-reintroduced-in-yellowstone-some-unexpected-species-benefitted
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2017/04/03/nestle-pumps-water-national-forrest-without-paying-sparking-protest/99982518/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-fact-check-gops-selective-history-high-court-185127273--politics.html
https://tcf.org/content/commentary/trump-white-house-spying-fbi/
https://psychologistmimi.com/2013/06/16/the-psychology-of-hero-worship-bowling-for-decency/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/i-had-terrible-groin-pain-if-id-been-a-man-they-wouldve-figured-it-out-sooner/2017/03/31/e3018864-ea51-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.88cc75424cfd
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/americans-right-to-protest-is-in-grave-danger-under-trump-united-nations-warns/?utm_term=.374b9963528d
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/how-the-science-of-blue-lies-may-explain-trumps-support/
https://medium.com/@travlow/ive-been-to-the-future-it-looks-like-appalachia-5553bf89f275
https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/03/16/Big-Washington-Battle-Could-Hit-You-Wallet

Monday, April 03, 2017

Russians used ‘Bernie Bros’ as ‘unwitting agents’ in disinformation campaign

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/russians-used-bernie-bros-as-unwitting-agents-in-disinformation-campaign-senate-intel-witness/

Russians used ‘Bernie Bros’ as ‘unwitting agents’ in disinformation campaign: Senate Intel witness
David Ferguson
30 Mar 2017

At Thursday afternoon’s meeting of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Retired Gen. Keith Alexander — former director of the National Security Agency — said that Russian operatives targeted both liberal and conservative voters in its disinformation campaigns during the 2016 election.

Dr. Thomas Rid of Kings College London’s Department of War Studies explained that polarization makes societies vulnerable to manipulation by disinformation campaigns.

Russia, Rid explained, according to CBS News, likes to use “unwitting agents” to carry out its work. WikiLeaks, Twitter and “overeager journalists” all contributed to Russia’s efforts to destabilize the U.S. by disrupting its 2016 election.

Democratic committee co-chair Sen. Mark Warner (VA) asked the panel if they had any doubt that Russia had attempted to interfere in some aspects of the 2016 election. Alexander said not only did he have no doubt, he could get very specific.

“Senator, I think what they were trying to do was drive a wedge within the Democratic Party between the Clinton group and the Sanders group,” said Alexander. “And then in our nation between Republicans and Democrats.”

Supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) reported earlier this month that during the 2016 election, their social media feeds and pro-Sanders Facebook groups were inundated with what they now believe were Russian bots spewing anti-Hillary memes

•••••

On Thursday morning, counterterrorism expert Clinton Watts told the Senate Committee that Russia is still carrying out cyber-operations against the country. Russia, he said, floods Twitter with bots linking to conspiracy theories that will appeal to Trump at times when the president is likely to be online.

The Russians target Trump, Watts said, because they know he is a reliable spreader of fake news.

•••••

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-intel-russia-hearing-live-updates/

http://shareblue.com/watching-the-hearings-i-learned-my-bernie-bro-harassers-may-have-been-russian-bots/

More than 250 dead in Colombia mudslides

Global warming has caused an increase in the amount of moisture in the air, resulting in more incidents of severe precipitation. Those who oppose action on GW are mass murderers.



By Deborah Bloom, Angela Dewan, Jennifer Deaton and Mariano Castillo, CNN
Updated 11:18 AM ET, Mon April 3, 2017

•••••

Torrential rains Friday night caused three rivers surrounding the southern city of Mocoa to overflow -- sending a torrent of mud and debris surging through the city.
President Juan Manuel Santos said 170 victims had been identified.

He said 43 children were among the dead and 22 more had been hospitalized. A further 203 people were injured, many severely.

•••••

Save the Children said at least 70 children had been separated from their parents.
The organization said it would be working to support children and families in the area and was helping to coordinate hygiene kits and temporary friendly spaces for affected children to attend.
"This is obviously a highly shocking and chaotic situation for the population in the most vulnerable situation, especially pregnant women, children and adolescents," executive director Maria Paula Martinez said in a statement calling for support.

•••••

Heavy rains, high levels of deforestation, informal housing and dense human populations are some factors that can leave communities vulnerable to landslides, scientists say.
CNN meteorologist Michael Guy says it appears that the surrounding region had saturated ground from above-average rainfall this year.

•••••

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/03/americas/colombia-mudslide/

•••••

[President Juan Manuel] Santos blamed climate change for triggering the avalanche, saying that the accumulated rainfall in one night was almost half the amount Mocoa normally receives in the entire month of March. With the rainy season in much of Colombia just beginning, he said local and national authorities need to redouble their efforts to prevent a similar tragedy.

•••••

Flu shot saves children's lives, study shows



By Amy Norton HealthDay April 3, 2017, 11:18 AM

The yearly flu shot could prevent most flu-related deaths among children and teenagers, a new U.S. government study estimates.

Researchers found that about three-quarters of U.S. kids who died of flu complications between 2010 and 2014 were unvaccinated before they fell ill.

If all children got their yearly flu shot, 65 percent of those deaths could be prevented, the researchers estimated.

•••••

Kids who are perfectly healthy can become severely ill with the flu and develop complications such as pneumonia. But the risk is higher among children with certain medical conditions, including asthma, heart disease, diabetes, cystic fibrosis and sickle cell anemia.

Flannery’s team found that a flu shot can cut the risk of death among both healthy kids and those with “high-risk” medical conditions.

•••••

On average, the CDC team estimated, 65 percent of flu-related deaths could be prevented if all U.S. kids got their yearly flu shot. Among children with high-risk medical conditions, the vaccine could cut the risk of death in half.

•••••

Flannery agreed that some people believe the flu shot does not work. To some extent, he said, that’s due to uncertainty about what the flu is: Some people confuse it with the common cold, or even a stomach infection. If they fall ill with those infections after getting a flu shot, they think the vaccine didn’t work.

In addition, some parents worry about the vaccine’s safety, particularly if their child has a chronic health condition.

But, Flannery stressed, “the vaccine is recommended for children with high-risk medical conditions because it is safe.”

The reality, fortunately, is that any one child has a very low risk of dying from the flu, Offit said.

Flannery made the same point. But, he added, the flu vaccine can also prevent hospitalizations, time off from work for parents, and a whole lot of misery for kids.

In the United States, the flu season typically runs from October through April.

Sunday, April 02, 2017

Media distorted cancer cause study, duh

An example of how the media serves the corporate world that pays for ads is the recent claim by the news media that most cancers do not have an environmental cause, are just "bad luck". This is a misinterpretation of the data. And it ignores the fact that pollutants are so widespread that we don't know what the cancer rate would be w/o them. Even this article from Scientific American which corrects the media distortions contains the same kind of click-bait headline. Such headlines are usually not created by the writers of the article, but by those who are concerned with getting reader clicks & advertiser dollars.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-cancer-cases-arise-from-bad-luck/

•••••

Now the authors of that 2015 paper are back. In a study published on Thursday in Science, they double down on their original finding but also labor mightily to correct widespread misinterpretations of it. This time, using health records from 69 countries, they conclude that 66 percent of cancer-causing genetic mutations arise from the “bad luck” of a healthy, dividing cell making a random mistake when it copies its DNA. [Don't stop reading or you will get the wrong impression.]

•••••

Separate research has shown that roughly 42 percent of cancers are preventable by, for instance, not smoking, maintaining a healthy weight, and not being exposed to cancer-causing pollutants.

•••••

The original “bad luck” study as well as this one compared how rates of cancer in different tissues relate to the frequency with which healthy cells in those tissues — lung, bone, brain, and more — divide.

They found a very close correlation. Cells of the large intestine divide frequently, and 5 percent of people develop cancer in that tissue. Cells of the small intestine divide rarely, and only 0.2 percent of people develop cancer there. Because dividing cells do not always copy their DNA perfectly, every division is an opportunity for a cancer-causing mutation to arise; more divisions, more cancers, the Hopkins team argued.

Overall, they found, about two-thirds of the difference in cancer rates from one kind of tissue to another is due to differences in the rates of cell division in those tissues. That conclusion echoes the one in their previous, US-only study, and held for all 17 cancer types and all 69 countries they analyzed.

That doesn’t mean that two-thirds of cancers are caused by unforced errors in DNA copying, however. The high or low rate of cell divisions account for two-thirds of the differences in cancer rates from one kind of tissue to another. For instance, the “cause” of the Himalayas is the Indian tectonic plate smashing into the Eurasian Plate. That has produced more than a dozen peaks reaching above 26,000 feet. But the difference between K2’s 28,251 feet and Annapurna’s 26,545 feet is nevertheless partly due to random factors, from wind erosion to the angle of the rock strata underlying each mountain.

Similarly, the cause of many cancers might be environmental factors. But the difference in cancer rates in different tissues can still be the result of different underlying rates of cell division. That’s what the Hopkins scientists found.

•••••

Several mutations are required for cancer. Therefore, if two out of three required mutations arise from copying mistakes, but the third comes from an environmental carcinogen, then avoiding that carcinogen prevents the cancer.

This time the Hopkins team agrees. There is a difference between how cancer-causing mutations come about and whether that cancer is preventable, they acknowledge. For instance, 65 percent of mutations in lung cancers arose randomly but 89 percent of those cancers are preventable by avoiding smoking, Tomasetti said.

Their critics argue that the environment’s effect on cancer goes beyond mutations, in which case prevention might have an even bigger role to play. Whether a few malignant cells form a dangerous tumor depends on, among other things, levels of inflammation, insulin, and obesity. Those influences don’t show up in genomic analyses like those the Hopkins researchers did but are affected by lifestyle and environmental factors, said Ross Prentice, a renowned cancer biostatistician at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle.

“Environmental exposures can influence cancer risk in many ways,” he said, including whether cells repair cancer-causing mutations and whether the immune system destroys tumor cells before they cause actual disease.

[
Surely environmental factors affect how often cancer-causing mutations come about during cell division. The same rate of environmental causation would be totally expected to result in more mutations in tissue with more cell divisions. Just like the same death rate in a population would result in more deaths in a large city than in a small town.

Saturday, April 01, 2017

Fish also need friends

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-03/igdc-fan032917.php

Public Release: 31-Mar-2017
Fish also need friends
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciencia

According to a new study led by Rui Oliveira, researcher at ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, and Fundação Champalimaud, zebrafish need social support to overcome adverse circumstances and may, therefore, become a model of choice for studying this behavior and its underlying neural mechanisms.

The discoveries of this study, published in Scientific Reports, open new avenues for understanding this social behavior, crucial for human well-being and of great relevance in certain diseases such as depression or generalized anxiety.

The support that each individual receives from those around him/her influences his/her behavior and can help the individual to surpass setbacks. Besides humans, other social animals are able to better recover from an adverse situation in the presence of their peers.

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Egg-sitting glassfrogs create safe exit for tadpoles

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-03/stri-egc033017.php

Public Release: 31-Mar-2017
Egg-sitting glassfrogs create safe exit for tadpoles
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

Glassfrogs may be somewhat see-through, but they have still managed to a hide an important secret--they are dedicated mothers and fathers that invest time in brooding their eggs. Smithsonian scientists documented previously unknown parental-care behavior using detailed observations of 40 species of glassfrogs in Central and South America. Their discovery rewrites assumptions about how caregiving evolved in this family of translucent, tree-dwelling frogs.

"These are relatively well-studied, charismatic frogs, yet we were fundamentally wrong about their reproductive behavior," said Karen Warkentin, associate scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and professor at Boston University. That is because the frogs mate during the night, laying their eggs from leaves that dangle over running water. Warkentin's doctoral student, Jesse Delia, and research partner Laura Bravo-Valencia of the University of Los Andes, Colombia, had to adopt nighttime schedules to observe what the frogs were doing.
"Because Jesse and Laura were spending all night on the streams, they saw things that nobody had seen before," Warkentin said.

Crucially, Delia and Bravo-Valencia observed that female frogs will sit upon their eggs for up to five hours after laying them. The frogs' translucent bellies absorb water from dew-covered leaves, which they then use to hydrate the jelly-coated eggs. Swelling up to four times its thickness, the jelly protects the developing embryos from egg predators and fungal infections.

Previously, only males of some species of glassfrogs had been observed brooding eggs, leading researchers to assume that parental care was rare in the glassfrog family. But in a new study published in the Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Delia and his collaborators found that every species they observed cared for its eggs.

•••••

New study: Aggressive breast cancer grows faster in obese environment

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-03/ulcc-nsa033117.php

Public Release: 31-Mar-2017
New study: Aggressive breast cancer grows faster in obese environment
UNC Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center

It's not just what's inside breast cancer cells that matters. It's also the environment surrounding cancer cells that drives the disease, according to researchers at the University of North Carolina Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center. In an abstract that will be presented April 3 at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017, researchers will report their preliminary findings that cancer cells grew faster when they were transplanted into fatty, obese tissue. They believe the study can help explain the obesity cancer link, providing evidence that elements of the fatty tissue surrounding cancer cells may help the cancer to grow.

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Exposure to BPA substitute, BPS, multiplies breast cancer cells

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-etb033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Exposure to BPA substitute, BPS, multiplies breast cancer cells
The Endocrine Society

Bisphenol S (BPS), a substitute for the chemical bisphenol A (BPA) in the plastic industry, shows the potential for increasing the aggressiveness of breast cancer through its behavior as an endocrine-disrupting chemical, a new study finds. The results, which tested BPS in human breast cancer cells, will be presented Saturday at ENDO 2017, the Endocrine Society's 99th annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

BPS is found in polycarbonate hard plastics, currency bills and thermal paper receipts as well as many products touted to be free of BPA, a known endocrine-disrupting chemical suspected of having multiple possible health risks.

"Despite hopes for a safer alternative to BPA, studies have shown BPS to exhibit similar estrogen-mimicking behavior to BPA," said the study's principal investigator, Sumi Dinda, Ph.D., associate professor at Oakland University School of Health Sciences, Rochester, Mich.

Their study confirmed that BPS acts like estrogen in breast cancer cells, Dinda said, adding, "So far, BPS seems to be a potent endocrine disruptor."

•••••

Pyrethroid pesticide exposure appears to speed puberty in boys

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-ppe033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Pyrethroid pesticide exposure appears to speed puberty in boys
The Endocrine Society

Environmental exposure to common pesticides may cause boys to reach sexual maturity earlier, researchers have found. They will present their study results Saturday at the Endocrine Society's 99th annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

Previous research shows that early puberty increases the risk of diseases in adulthood, for example, testicular cancer in men and breast cancer in women. Early puberty also can stunt growth and cause behavioral problems.

The class of pesticides studied, pyrethroids, accounts for more than 30 percent of global insecticide use, said Jing Liu, Ph.D., lead investigator and an associate professor at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China. These chemicals are known endocrine-disrupting chemicals that interfere with the body's hormones.

"We recognize pyrethroids as a new environmental contributor to the observed trend toward earlier sexual maturity in boys," Liu said.

•••••

Pyrethroids are used indoors and outdoors to kill mosquitoes and other insects, and are sprayed on crops. Humans likely receive most of their exposure to pyrethroids from food and residential use.

•••••

In a study of 463 Chinese boys ages 9 to 16 years, Liu's research team found that a 10 percent increase in 3-PBA was associated with a 4 percent increase in the boys' levels of luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH). Both these hormones spur production of testosterone in males.

•••••

Prolonged sleep disturbance can lead to lower bone formation

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-psd033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Prolonged sleep disturbance can lead to lower bone formation
The Endocrine Society

Insufficient sleep, a common problem that has been linked to chronic disease risk, might also be an unrecognized risk factor for bone loss. Results of a new study will be presented Saturday at the Endocrine Society's 99th annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

The study investigators found that healthy men had reduced levels of a marker of bone formation in their blood after three weeks of cumulative sleep restriction and circadian disruption, similar to that seen in jet lag or shift work, while a biological marker of bone resorption, or breakdown, was unchanged.

"This altered bone balance creates a potential bone loss window that could lead to osteoporosis and bone fractures," lead investigator Christine Swanson, M.D., an assistant professor at the University of Colorado in Aurora, Colo., said. Swanson completed the research while she was a fellow at Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, Ore., with Drs. Eric S. Orwoll and Steven A. Shea.

"If chronic sleep disturbance is identified as a new risk factor for osteoporosis, it could help explain why there is no clear cause for osteoporosis in the approximately 50 percent of the estimated 54 million Americans with low bone mass or osteoporosis," Swanson said.

Inadequate sleep is also prevalent, affecting more than 25 percent of the U.S. population occasionally and 10 percent frequently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report.

•••••

Exposure to common flame retardants may raise the risk of papillary thyroid cancer

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-etc033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Exposure to common flame retardants may raise the risk of papillary thyroid cancer
The Endocrine Society

Some flame retardants used in many home products appear to be associated with the most common type of thyroid cancer, papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), according to a new study being presented Saturday at the Endocrine Society's 99th annual meeting, ENDO 2017, in Orlando, Fla.

"Thyroid cancer is the fastest increasing cancer in the U.S., with most of the increase in new cases being papillary thyroid cancer," said the study's lead investigator, Julie Ann Sosa, M.D., MA, professor of surgery and medicine at Duke University School of Medicine in Durham, N.C. "Recent studies suggest that environmental factors may, in part, be responsible for this increase."

•••••

People with higher thyroid hormone levels may be at greater risk for atherosclerosis

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-pwh_1033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
People with higher thyroid hormone levels may be at greater risk for atherosclerosis
The Endocrine Society

Middle-aged and elderly people with higher free thyroxine levels may be more likely to develop atherosclerotic diseases, new research from the Netherlands reports. The results of the study will be presented Sunday, April 2, at ENDO 2017, the annual meeting of the Endocrine Society, in Orlando, Fla.

"Coronary heart disease and stroke remain a leading cause of mortality worldwide, despite advances in prevention and treatment. Therefore, identifying additional modifiable risk factors for atherosclerosis is of major importance," said lead study author Arjola Bano, M.D., M.Sc., D.Sc., who is a Ph.D. candidate at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

•••••

The researchers accounted for the possible influence of age, gender, body mass index, total cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, alcohol and tobacco intake, and the use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs in their statistical analyses.

Over a median followup of 8.8 years, 1,130 atherosclerotic events and 580 atherosclerotic deaths occurred in the population. Higher free thyroxine (FT4) levels in these patients were associated with elevated risk of atherosclerotic morbidity and mortality independent of cardiovascular risk factors.

The authors also found that higher FT4 levels were associated with greater risk of subclinical atherosclerosis.

•••••

Cow's milk interferes with absorption of thyroid supplement levothyroxine

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-cmi033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Cow's milk interferes with absorption of thyroid supplement levothyroxine
The Endocrine Society

Taking the common oral thyroid hormone medication levothyroxine with a glass of cow's milk significantly decreases the body's ability to absorb the drug, a preliminary study finds. Results will be presented Sunday at ENDO 2017, the Endocrine Society's 99th annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

"These findings support previous research showing that calcium supplements can interfere with levothyroxine absorption," said principal investigator Deborah Chon, M.D., an endocrinology fellow at the UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine and the VA (Veterans Affairs) Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, Los Angeles, Calif. "Decreased absorption means that patients may not get the full dose of thyroid hormone that they are prescribed."

Although it makes sense that milk, which contains calcium, might interfere with levothyroxine absorption, no study has proved that it does until now, according to Chon.

Levothyroxine is prescribed for patients with an underactive thyroid, called hypothyroidism, to replace the natural thyroid hormone thyroxine (T4) that is too low, or for patients with thyroid cancer, to suppress their thyroid stimulating hormone levels. In 2014, levothyroxine was the most commonly prescribed medication in the U.S., a survey from the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics (now QuintilesIMS) found.

•••••

Recent thyroid cancer trends in the United States suggest age, racial disparities

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tes-rtc033117.php

Public Release: 1-Apr-2017
Recent thyroid cancer trends in the United States suggest age, racial disparities
The Endocrine Society

In the United States, thyroid cancer incidence is rising among young people as well as Hispanics and African Americans, a new study reports. Results of this research will be presented in a poster Monday, April 3, at ENDO 2017, the annual scientific meeting of the Endocrine Society, in Orlando, Fla.

"Thyroid cancer incidence is leveling off in the United States. Our analysis, however, shows that the trend of deceleration mainly occurred in non-Hispanic Whites and in older populations, whereas the rate of thyroid cancer continuously increased among the young and the Hispanic and black populations," said lead author Anupam Kotwal, M.B.B.S., clinical fellow in the Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, Metabolism and Nutrition at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn.

•••••

Informative links



https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/03/23/Secret-Service-Won-t-Get-60-Million-More-Protect-Trumps
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/03/30/i-worked-with-jared-kushner-hes-the-wrong-businessman-to-reinvent-government/?utm_term=.b3311b7d9dbe&wpisrc=nl_most-draw14&wpmm=1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/31/why-michael-flynn-may-be-seeking-immunity/?utm_term=.c4221ff4a159&wpisrc=nl_most-draw14&wpmm=1
https://psychcentral.com/news/2017/04/01/insomnia-tied-to-greater-risk-of-heart-attack-stroke/118477.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/stephen-k-bannon-architect-of-antiglobalist-policies-got-rich-as-a-global-capitalist/2017/03/31/47382082-0a8b-11e7-a15f-a58d4a988474_story.html?utm_term=.c6a051dc19ce
http://www.news4jax.com/news/man-who-saw-deadly-church-bus-crash-unfold-describes-scene
http://jaysonlusk.com/blog/2017/3/29/when-consumers-dont-want-to-know
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/stunning-drug-lab-scandal-could-upend-23-000-convictions-n739626
http://blog.healthjourneys.com/update-from-belleruth/do-s-don-ts-for-the-bereaved-and-their-well-meaning-friends.html
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-obamacare-affordable-care-act-repeal-paul-ryan-20170114-story.html


Colombia Landslide Kills At Least 154, Scores Injured

Global warming is causing more cases of severe weather events, including heavy rain. Those who are blocking action on GW are mass murderers.

Safe to say more fatalities and injuries will be discovered.



by Associated Press
April 1, 2017

An avalanche of water from three overflowing rivers swept through a small city in Colombia while people slept, destroying homes, sweeping away cars and killing at least 154 unsuspecting residents.

The incident triggered by intense rains happened around midnight in Mocoa, a provincial capital of about 40,000 tucked between mountains near Colombia's southern border with Ecuador.

•••••

According to the Red Cross, 400 people were injured and 220 believed missing. President Juan Manuel Santos declared a state of emergency on Saturday and said the death toll will likely rise but warned against speculating how many people are dead.

"We don't know how many there are going to be," he said of the fatalities when he arrived at the disaster zone to oversee rescue efforts. "We're still looking."

•••••

The Red Cross planned to set up a special unit in Mocoa Saturday afternoon to help relatives search for their loved ones.

"In this moment, it's chaos," said Oscar Forero, a spokesman with the Colombian Red Cross. "There are many people missing."

Santos blamed climate change for triggering the avalanche, saying that the accumulated rainfall in one night was almost half the amount Mocoa normally receives in the entire month of March. With the rainy season in much of Colombia just beginning, he said local and national authorities need to redouble their efforts to prevent a similar tragedy.

Robot that shows pain could teach doctors to recognise it better

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23331171-800-robot-that-shows-pain-could-teach-doctors-to-recognise-it-better/

By Timothy Revell
15 March 2017

•••••

To make the robot and avatar, the researchers collected videos of people expressing pain, disgust and anger, and used face-tracking software to convert their expressions into a series of moving points. They then mapped these onto the robot and avatar faces. The robot used was Hanson Robotics’ Philip K. Dick, a humanoid modelled on the science fiction writer that has realistic rubber skin and can move its facial features.

To test how well people could perceive emotions from the simulated facial expressions, videos of the robot and avatar were shown to 102 volunteers, who had to judge which emotion matched which expression. Half the volunteers were clinicians, such as doctors, nurses and pharmacists, and half had no medical background.

The clinicians turned out to be less accurate than the non-clinicians at recognising both pain and anger. In the starkest difference, the clinicians correctly identified pain expressed by the virtual avatar only 54 per cent of the time, compared with 83 per cent for the non-clinicians.

This follows previous research that suggests doctors are worse at interpreting pain in humans than laypeople and tend to underestimate the severity. This could partly be a result of medical training decreasing levels of empathy.

•••••

Indian Ocean version of El Niño behind drought in East Africa

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23331174-200-indian-ocean-version-of-el-nio-behind-drought-in-east-africa/

Mar. 15, 2017

AN INDIAN Ocean phenomenon is partly to blame for the severe drought in East Africa, affecting maize and sorghum harvests and sending food prices soaring. A famine has been declared in South Sudan, while Kenya and Somalia have announced national emergencies.

According to the UN Environment Programme, 17 million people in the region now face hunger. “We are currently facing potentially the worst humanitarian disaster the world has known since 1945,” says Mike Noyes at the charity ActionAid.

Long-term weather forecasts suggest it won’t rain for several months. The drought is partly caused by the Indian Ocean dipole, which is similar to El Niño in the Pacific: sea surface temperatures in the east of the ocean cycle between cold and warm relative to the western ocean.

.

The dipole was particularly strong in 2016, with warm temperatures in the east creating more moisture in the atmosphere. This cools the air in the east, leading to winds blowing eastward from Africa across the ocean. They push away the moist air that normally brings rain to East Africa from October to December.

The famine is the third to hit the region in 25 years. The last, in 2011, resulted in 260,000 deaths.

The dipole has been getting more pronounced in recent