Karen McVeigh
@karenmcveigh1
Tue 2 Feb 2021 12.00 EST
to validate various models relied on by the IPCC to make its assessment, they found a discrepancy of about 25cm [10 in], they said in a paper published in the journal Ocean Science.
The researchers said the models used by the IPCC were not sensitive enough, based on what they described as a “reality check” test.
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The rise predictions used by the IPCC are based on a “jigsaw puzzle” of models for ice sheets, glaciers and thermal expansion or warming of the sea. The more the temperature rises, the higher the sea level will get.
But, Grinsted said, only a limited amount of data was sometimes available for the models to be tested on. There was practically no data on the melt-off rate for Antarctica before satellite observations in the 1990s, he said. Grinsted found that while individual data, when tested backwards in time, from 1850 to 2017, reflected actual sea level rise, when the data was combined the predictions were too conservative.
“We have better historical data for the sea level rise in total, which, in principle, allows for a test of the combined puzzle of models,” said Grinsted.
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