Alternating lockdown strategy can help defeat COVID-19 and sustain socio-economic activity

 

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-02/bu-als022421.php

 

News Release 24-Feb-2021
Bar-Ilan University

 

Social distancing - from mobility restrictions to complete lockdowns -- can take many weeks, possibly even months, a potentially devastating outcome for social and economic stability. One of the challenges is that the sick cannot be selectively isolated, since many of the spreaders remain pre-symptomatic for a period ranging from several days to as much as two weeks - invisible spreaders who continue to be socially active. Hence, it seems that without a population-wide lockdown isolating the carriers cannot be achieved effectively.

To bypass this challenge, researchers from Israel's Bar-Ilan University, led by Prof. Baruch Barzel, devised a strategy based on alternating lockdowns: first splitting the population into two groups, then alternating these groups between lockdown and routine activity in weekly succession. Together with isolation of the symptomatic spreaders and the adoption of everyday prophylactic behaviors, this strategy can help defeat the virus, while sustaining socio-economic activity at a 50% level. This strategy was recently published in the journal Nature Communications.

In the alternating lockdown routine, society is partitioned into two groups, with little interaction between them -- one half active this week, and the other active only the next. This will already slow the spread, but its main advantage is that it helps isolate the invisible spreaders, such as those who are pre-symptomatic carriers still in the incubation period. "Consider an individual who became infected during their active week. They are now in their pre-symptomatic period - the most dangerous stage, in which they are invisible spreaders. The crucial point is that, according to the alternating lock-down routine they are now scheduled to enter their lockdown phase," explains Prof. Barzel, of Bar-Ilan's Department of Mathematics. "Staying at home for another week, they will most likely begin to exhibit symptoms, and therefore remain in isolation until full recovery. Indeed, if following a week of lockdown they show no symptoms, they are most likely uninfected and can partake in social and professional activities during their active week. Therefore, alternating lockdown with full isolation of symptomatic spreaders ensures that at all times, the majority of invisible spreaders are inactive, as their incubation period is naturally directed towards their lockdown phase."

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 The proposed weekly succession is aimed to sustain a functional economy in these challenging times. The researchers believe that, providing an outlet for people to continue their social and professional activity, at least at 50% capacity, will, in and of itself encourage cooperation, as it relaxes some of the individual stress endured under lockdown.