Reduction in commercial flights due to COVID-19 leading to less accurate weather forecasts

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/agu-ric071620.php


News Release 17-Jul-2020
American Geophysical Union


Weather forecasts have become less accurate during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the reduction in commercial flights, according to new research.

A new study in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters finds the world lost 50-75% of its aircraft weather observations between March and May of this year, when many flights were grounded due to the pandemic.

Aircraft typically inform weather forecasts by recording information about air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind along their flight path. With significantly fewer planes in the sky this spring, forecasts of these meteorological conditions have become less accurate and the impact is more pronounced as forecasts extend further out in time, according to the study, which is part of an ongoing special collection of research in AGU journals related to the current pandemic.

Weather forecasts are an essential part of daily life, but inaccurate forecasts can also impact the economy, according to Ying Chen, a senior research associate at the Lancaster Environment Centre in Lancaster, United Kingdom and lead author of the new study. The accuracy of weather forecasts can impact agriculture as well as the energy sector and stability of the electrical grid. Wind turbines rely on accurate forecasts of windspeed and energy companies depend on temperature forecasts to predict what the energy load will be each day as people crank up their air conditioning.

"If this uncertainty goes over a threshold, it will introduce unstable voltage for the electrical grid," Chen said. "That could lead to a blackout, and I think this is the last thing we want to see in this pandemic."

•••••