Saturday, February 08, 2020

The U.S. created 514,000 fewer jobs in 2018-19 than originally reported — here’s what that means


This appears to be a normal lag in getting the facts, since it follows the normal pattern. Of course, the way the Trump administration behaves, many will suspect a deliberate coverup. But I try to be fair and honest.

I remember during a recession, I think the one before the big one, the Georgia Dept. of Labor was showing Georgia doing better than other states. It turned out they weren't opening and recording reports from employers that showed the real number of layoffs, in that case to deliberately make the state look better.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/CCA3EBC0-49CB-11EA-BE18-993E793EE3B3

By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Feb 7, 2020 3:46 pm ET

The U.S. economy created about a half-million fewer jobs in 2019 and 2018 than it first appeared, but it doesn’t mean the labor market isn’t strong.

The government as expected pruned the level of overall U.S. employment by 514,000 as of March 2019, with almost all of the reduction coming in 2018.

Employment gains in 2018 were lowered to 2.3 million from 2.7 million — an average of 30,000-a-month fewer than previously reported.

A big surprise? No. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics previewed the cut last summer, as it always does.

The updated employment numbers are produced annually after government statisticians examine company tax and payrolls records from the Internal Revenue Service that aren’t immediately available.

Typically, the government has tended to underestimate job creation in the early stages of an economic recovery and overestimate the level of hiring late in a business cycle. Yet while the latest revisions are larger than usual, they aren’t especially so.

In most years the revision in employment is plus or minus 0.2%. The change in 2019 was 0.3%

•••••

No comments:

Post a Comment