Man-made climate change helped cause south of England floods, say scientists

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-02/uoo-mcc012916.php

Public Release: 1-Feb-2016
Man-made climate change helped cause south of England floods, say scientists
University of Oxford

Human-induced climate change increased the risk of severe storms like those that hit the south of England in the winter of 2013/14, causing devastating flooding and costing several people their lives.

That's according to new analysis from an international team of climate scientists led by researchers at Oxford University.

They found that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of the once-a-century wet January in 2014 by 43% (uncertainty range: 0-160%). The increase in extreme rainfall that led to the flooding in 2013/14 was the result of two factors associated with global warming: an increase in the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere (a thermodynamic factor) and more January days with westerly air flow (a dynamic factor). The authors identified that approximately 2/3 of the increased risk could be attributed to thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere, and 1/3 to dynamic changes.

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ead author Dr Nathalie Schaller of Oxford University's Department of Physics said: 'We found that extreme rainfall, as seen in January 2014, is more likely to occur in a changing climate. This is because not only does the higher water-holding capacity lead to increased rainfall, but climate change makes the atmosphere more favourable to low-pressure systems bringing rain from the Atlantic across southern England.'

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