Avoiding rare but large dangers

On the radio a couple of days ago, NPR interviewed someone about in connection with the plane crash that killed so many important people in Poland. It was pointed out the large corporations often have rules limiting the number of high executives who can take the same plane, or even get a room on the same floor of a hotel. The interviewer asked if this were really necessary, because the risk of a plane crash was so small. The answer was that, yes the risk was very small, but it was wise to guard against it because the results would be so harmful.

The same logic applies to global warming. Except that we know it's happening; what is unknown is how bad it will be. The worst possibilities are very bad indeed.


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