Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Perceiving Randomness

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/04/06/perceiving-randomness/

The kind way to say it is: “Humans are really good at detecting patterns.” The less kind way is: “Humans are really good at detecting patterns, even when they don’t exist.”
[See article for pictures]

Humans are not very good at generating random sequences; when asked to come up with a “random” sequence of coin flips from their heads, they inevitably include too few long strings of the same outcome. In other words, they think that randomness looks a lot more uniform and structureless than it really does. The flip side is that, when things really are random, they see patterns that aren’t really there. It might be in coin flips or distributions of points, or it might involve the Virgin Mary on a grilled cheese sandwich, or the insistence on assigning blame for random unfortunate events.

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