Mon. June 19, 2023
Ocean waters are hitting record highs. Warm water fuels hurricanes. It's possible that it might not mean more hurricanes, because warmer air can also cause more wind shear which tears hurricanes apart. So far, there have been mostly about the same number of hurricanes per season, although we ran out of the 21 hurricane names the list for the year in 2005 and 2020 for the first time in history, and had to start using the Greek alphabet. In 2020 there were 30 named storms in the Atlantic! So the World Meteorological Organization now creates a supplemental list of another 21 names for that situation.
What we can be confident about is that the hurricanes that do form will be stronger.
And this year the Atlantic hurricane season is starting a couple of months early. A couple of days ago a weather system off the coast of Africa started organizing. It quickly organized to a tropical wave. Today it strengthened from tropical wave at the beginning of the day to tropical depression three, now tropical storm Bret. Forecast to become a hurricane by late Wed. or early Thurs. As fast as it has developed the last few days, I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach hurricane status even earlier. It will be interesting to follow it. At 2pm, it was still a tropical wave, and they said a tropical depression could form in a couple of days. Well, three hours later it was tropical depression three, and one hour after that tropical storm Bret. And there is another tropical wave behind it, which is strengthening.
Weather predictions are based on what happened under similar conditions in the past. Since we are having conditions that have not been seen in the past, predictions will be less accurate.
National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center web site:
Official Facebook page for the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC
On twitter:
@nhc_atlantic
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