New coronavirus spread isn’t the feared ‘second wave’ – it’s still the first, researchers say

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/coronavirus-spread-isnt-the-feared-second-waveits-still-the-first.html


Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
Published Fri, Jun 12 202010:23 AM EDTUpdated Fri, Jun 12 202012:18 PM EDT


The rise in coronavirus cases seen in about half a dozen states across the U.S. isn’t the feared “second wave” — it’s still the first, scientists and infectious disease specialists say.

To be defined as a second wave the virus would need to retreat and reappear, or a new variant would have to emerge, said Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University. “The recent increase in cases does not reflect either.”

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A handful of states including New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts have experienced “clear first-wave outbreaks,” said Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. “However, many states have had more of a first-wave plateau, without a clear decline for many weeks.”

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Last week, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield told lawmakers he was worried Americans aren’t following the agency’s advice as states begin to reopen after shuttering businesses and limiting activities as part of social distancing measures intended to curb the spread of the virus.

Crowds of people have been seen in recent weeks at protests, over the Memorial Day holiday and at the SpaceX launch.

“We will continue to message as well as we can,” said Redfield, who’s on the White House coronavirus task force. “We’re going to encourage people that have the ability to require to wear masks when they are in their environment to continue to do that.”

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Whether the coronavirus is in a first wave or a second wave, the point is that cases are growing, Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of Toronto said. Public health specialists warn that a slow burn of infection through the summer could lead to a massive resurgence this fall

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