New Study: Larger, More Intense U.S. Storm Complexes on the Way

Bob Henson · November 19, 2017,

The mammoth clusters of thunderstorms known as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) could dump up to 80% more water across North America by late this century, according to a study published Monday in Nature Climate Change. The study, “Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the U.S.,” found that increased atmospheric moisture in a warming climate will help lead to a 15 – 40% increase in peak MCS rainfall rates, along with a 20 – 70% jump in the rainfall area. Together, these lead to a 30 – 80% boost in the total hourly volume of rain deposited by a typical MCS.

"The combination of more intense rainfall and the spreading of heavy rainfall over larger areas means that we will face a higher flood risk than previously predicted," said the study team, led by Andreas Prein (National Center for Atmospheric Research). “Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate adaptation practices.”

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Numerous studies have shown that the most intense rain events in many parts of the world, including the United States, are getting heavier, as human-produced greenhouse gases warm our climate and send more moisture from oceans into the atmosphere.

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