High-altitude climate change to kill cloud forest plants

Not surprising. If they could live at warmer climates, they wouldn't be restricted to these cooler climates.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-08/jcu-hcc080615.php

Public Release: 6-Aug-2015
High-altitude climate change to kill cloud forest plants
James Cook University

Australian scientists have discovered many tropical, mountaintop plants won't survive global warming, even under the best-case climate scenario.

James Cook University and Australian Tropical Herbarium researchers say their climate change modelling of mountaintop plants in the tropics has produced an "alarming" finding.

They found many of the species they studied will likely not be able to survive in their current locations past 2080 as their high-altitude climate changes.

The Wet Tropics World Heritage Area in Queensland, Australia is predicted to almost completely lose its ability to host the endemic plants that grow 1000 metres or more above sea level.

Lead researcher, Dr Craig Costion says the findings have important implications for some rare and ancient species. "They already live on mountain tops, they have no other place to go," he says.

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They found that by 2040 the climate niche the species grow in would decline anywhere between a minimum of 17% and a maximum of 100%.

By 2080, even using conservative assumptions, nearly half of the plants would not have what the scientists believe is a survivable climate.

The data show that between 2040 and 2060 eight to 12 species will be at risk of extinction.

Predictions indicate that by 2080 no suitable habitat will exist within the region for 84% of the species studied under any emissions scenario.

Dr Costion says there were some caveats on the findings.

"Our study indicates that the current climate on Queensland's mountaintops will virtually disappear. What we don't know is if these plants can adapt."

The researchers looked only at endemic trees and shrubs found solely above 1000 metres and for which there were the best records. They didn't consider reasons for their presence on mountaintops apart from climate suitability. But Dr Costion said he was confident the scientists were not being alarmist.

"The 19 species represent most of the plants that are restricted to that habitat. It's highly likely they are found only there because of the climate. There are plenty of other similar soil and substrate environments at lower elevations where they could grow but the climate is unsuitable," he says.

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