The report of research into climate disruption and its consequences for National Security, by 16 retired high-level military officers.http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/MAB_2014.pdf
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Chairman
Former Commanding General, Army Materiel Command
Brigadier General Gerald E. Galloway Jr., USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman
Former Dean at the United States Military Academy
Former Dean at the Industrial College of the Armed
Forces, National Defense University
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman
Former Inspector General of the Department of the Navy
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.)
Former Director of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program
Former Chief of Naval Personnel
General James Conway, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commandant of the Marine Corps
The nature and pace of observed climate changes—and an emerging scientific consensus on their projected consequences—pose severe risks for our national security. During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet nuclear threat during the Cold War to political extremism and transnational terrorism in recent years. The national security risks of projected climate change are as serious as any challenges we have faced
Since we published our first report in 2007 on the national security implications of climate change, we have witnessed nearly a decade of scientific discoveries in environmental science, a burgeoning scholarly literature on global complex interdependence among nations, and a series of reactions (or in many cases, failures to react) to projected climate change. Hence, we were compelled to provide an update to our report. Over several months and meetings, we listened to scientists, security analysts, government officials, industry representatives, and the military. We viewed their information through the lens of our military experience as warfighters, planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and very sobering.
At the end of the day, we validate the findings of our first report and find that in many cases the risks we identified are advancing noticeably faster than we anticipated. We also find the world becoming more complex in terms of the problems that plague its various regions.
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Each citizen must ask what he or she can do individually to mitigate climate change, and collectively what his or her local, state, and national leaders are doing to ensure that the world is sustained for future generations. Are your communities, businesses, and governments investing in the necessary resilience measures to lower the risks associated with climate change? In a world of high complex interdependence, how will climate change in the far corners of the world affect your life and those of your children and grandchildren? If the answers to any of these questions make you worried or uncomfortable, we urge you to become involved. Time and tide wait for no one.
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Actions by the United States and the international community have been insufficient to adapt to the challenges associated with projected climate change. Strengthening resilience to climate impacts already locked into the system is critical, but this will reduce long-term risk only if improvements in resilience are accompanied by actionable agreements on ways to stabilize climate change.
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Some in the political realm continue to debate the cause of a warming planet and demand more data. Yet MAB member General Gordon Sullivan, United States Army, Retired, has noted: “Speaking as a soldier, we never have 100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.”
Climate mitigation and adaptation efforts are emerging in various places around the world, but the extent of these efforts to mitigate and adapt to the projections are insufficient to avoid significant potential water, food,
and energy insecurity; political instability; extreme weather events; and other manifestations of climate change. Coordinated, wide-scale, and well-executed actions to limit heat-trapping gases and increase resilience to help prevent and protect against the worst projected climate change impacts are required—now.
The potential security ramifications of global climate change should be serving as catalysts for cooperation and change. Instead, climate change impacts are already accelerating instability in vulnerable areas of the world and are serving as catalysts for conflict.
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The world has added more than half a billion people since we began the research for our 2007 report. During this period, hundreds of millions of people have settled in urban areas and coastal regions—areas that are at increased risk to climate change effects.
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The projected impacts of climate change—heat waves, intense rainfall, floods and droughts, rising sea levels,
more acidic oceans, and melting glaciers and arctic sea ice—not only affect local communities but also, in the aggregate, challenge key elements of our National Power.* Key elements of National Power include political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information systems.
Military. The projected impacts of climate change could be detrimental to military readiness, strain base resilience both at home and abroad, and may limit our ability to respond to future demands.
The projected impacts of climate change will strain our military forces in the coming decades. More forces will be called on to respond in the wake of extreme weather events at home and abroad, limiting their ability to respond to other contingencies. Projected climate change will make training more difficult, while at the same time, putting at greater risk critical military logistics, transportation systems, and infrastructure, both on and off base.
Infrastructure. The impacts of projected climate change can be detrimental to the physical components of our national critical infrastructure, while also limiting their capacities.
The nation depends on critical infrastructure for economic prosperity, safety, and the essentials of everyday life. Projected climate change will impact all 16 critical infrastructure sectors identified in Homeland Security planning directives.
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Economic. The projected impacts of climate change will threaten major sections of the U.S. economy.
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Social. The projected impacts of climate change will affect major sections of our society and stress social support systems such as first responders.
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The CNA Military Advisory Board:
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Chairman
Former Commanding General, Army Materiel Command
Brigadier General Gerald E. Galloway Jr., USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman
Former Dean at the United States Military Academy Former Dean at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman
Former Inspector General of the Department of the Navy
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.)
Former Director of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program Former Chief of Naval Personnel
General James Conway, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commandant of the Marine Corps
Lieutenant General Ken Eickmann, USAF (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Aeronautical Systems Center
Lieutenant General Larry Farrell, USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force
General Don Hoffman USAF (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Materiel Command
General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command
General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, British Royal Navy (Ret.)
Former UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change
Former Commandant, UK Joint Services Command and Staff College
Vice Admiral Ann Rondeau, USN (Ret.)
Former President, National Defense University
Former Deputy Commander, U.S. Transportation Command
Lieutenant General Keith Stalder, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commanding General, U.S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific
General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.)
Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
Rear Admiral David W. Titley, USN (Ret.)
Former Oceanographer of the Navy
General Charles “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Commander, U.S. European Command
Lieutenant General Richard Zilmer, USMC (Ret.)
Former Deputy Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs Former Commanding General of Multi-National Force–West in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
MAB Executive Director:
Ms. Sherri Goodman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, CNA Corporation
Former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environmental Security
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